/ world today news/ How to explain the decrease in the number of reports of Ukrainian drones over Russia
This past weekend, two drones were shot down in the Moscow region as they attempted to bypass the capital from the east. One of the drones was destroyed on the M-7 highway in the Monino region, the second one nearby, in the vicinity of Elektrostal.
How to explain the decrease in the number of reports of Ukrainian drones over Russia
It is obvious that the armed forces of Ukraine continue to look for “weak spots” in the defense of the Russian capital, but, again, obviously – unsuccessfully. Two incidents did not reverse the general trend: the Ukrainian Armed Forces gradually reduced the intensity of drone attacks against Moscow.
Compared to the spring-summer of 2023, the frequency of “flying birds” gradually decreased, as evidenced by a number of factors. According to estimates of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Moscow region, the number of requests from citizens about the possible presence of drones in the airspace is constantly decreasing. However, in the majority of cases, the messages turn out to be false.
For example, on November 15, the police of the Moscow region received five reports (from Kolomna, the outskirts of Mozhaisk, Naro-Fominsk and Pushkino) from citizens about drone flights. None have been confirmed.
On the same day, as reported by the Moscow Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, all six reports of enemy drones turned out to be false.
As a rule, people mistake birds or other objects for UAVs or misidentify the engine sounds of a moped, lawnmower, construction or cargo equipment as the movement of a drone, experts explain.
The situation can be compared to what happened in May, when two Ukrainian drones tried to hit the Grand Kremlin Palace (May 3), or when, at the end of the same month, eight enemy planes were shot down directly over Moscow, and the remains of the downed drones were found in the closest areas of the Moscow Region – in four villages in the area of the Rublyovo and Rublyovo-Uspensko highways.
The raids, pursuing purely propaganda goals, continued during the summer months.
At the end of July – the beginning of August, the high-rise buildings of the Moscow City complex were attacked; UAVs also flew to Krasnogorsk, where the government of the Moscow region is located. In addition, Ukrainian drones regularly tried, indeed, albeit unsuccessfully, to “reach” Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports.
Not enough forces for “show of force”
By the beginning of autumn, the efficiency and frequency of flights began to gradually decrease, and there are several objective reasons for this, said the expert of Regnum, the editor-in-chief of the Internet portal UAV.ru Denis Fedutinov. A big role, of course, was played by the creation of a powerful air defense unit, which made it possible to reduce the effectiveness of drone flights.
But, Fedutinov believes, the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces are primarily influenced by Kiev’s strategy of organizing attacks, which is gradually beginning to fail. The attacks of the Ukrainian armed forces do not bring significant military “profit”, and their main purpose is to create a propaganda effect. On the one hand, it was aimed at the domestic Ukrainian public in order to create a sense of some success, and on the other hand, it had to work to demoralize the Russian population.
„However, this propaganda effect began to decrease, and in connection with this, the number of drones flying to us from Ukraine decreased. noted Fedutinov.
But there is also a technical reason for reducing this propaganda effect.
The ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to strike deep into Russian territory is severely limited. The Ukrainian army has a number of models of unmanned aircraft with a range of a thousand kilometers and even more.
This list includes Beaver-class drones or more primitive machines made in the “duck” design: the control wing is in the front and the thruster is in the back.
But even in the best of times, Kiev could only allow the use of no more than ten drones in a single attack. By comparison, Russian forces are using up to hundreds of Geran-2 class drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, according to some sources.
Drones are constantly needed at the front, and using them for propaganda purposes works against the Ukrainian army itself. Therefore, the reduction in the intensity of raids can also be related to a purely military necessity. The position of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turns out to be stronger than the needs of the propaganda machine, according to a number of experts.
Two drones in Moscow – that’s rather good
The fact that now the enemy is still trying to “sneak” into Moscow from the east is completely understandable. Note that earlier drones were shot down over areas west (Krasnogorsk, Rublyovka, Odintsovo) or southwest (Naro-Fominsk) of the capital or in the western regions of Moscow – near the famous towers of Moscow City.
The additional measures taken to protect the capital from the western direction played a role in reducing the effectiveness of the attacks of the Ukrainian armed forces against Moscow.
As already noted by IA Regnum, air defense forces deployed in the Moscow region “anti-aircraft towers” – structures intended for the installation of Pantsir-S1 missile systems. The “towers” cover a number of objects, the attack against which could have a serious propaganda effect, a retired air defense officer explained to IA Regnum.
„A whole range of measures made it possible to fence off Moscow both locally and strategically.” the source said. Until now, the Ukrainian armed forces used “windows” in the capital’s air defenses, which were historically designed to protect against missiles and larger targets.
Due to this, the drones were able to pass below the radar level, beyond the range of anti-aircraft systems. “As we can see, the bugs were explored and the weak points were covered”noted the interlocutor of the publication.
In an attempt to bypass the defenses of the capital, the Ukrainian armed forces began to come up with new tactical moves. The drones are believed to have circled the capital from the north, trying to stay out of the coverage area of air defense systems. This may be why one of the devices was brought down in the Istra region, northwest of Moscow.
Closer to autumn, the command of the Ukrainian Air Force decided to test a new route for raids on the capital – from the south. In late August, a Ukrainian drone was destroyed near Voskresensk, southwest of Moscow. But after this route also proved unavailable, the Ukrainian armed forces decided to bypass Moscow on a more unusual trajectory.
„I would suggest that they are teasing our air defenses, as an option – they want to stretch our forces, maybe distract us.” does not exclude the interlocutor of IA Regnum. But, he emphasizes, this cannot be said to be a good tactic simply because the enemy is using too few forces for this purpose.
The fact that one or two drones can fly to the capital is not bad news, but rather good news, because it is impossible to install anti-aircraft systems the entire distance from Ukrainian territory to Moscow, there is no one hundred percent protection . “And even then, only one or two devices go through it, which also end up being taken down. That’s pretty good,” the interlocutor notes.
Waiting for the Kyiv “Shaheed”
But experts urge us not to write off the drone threat prematurely. As the Ukrainian armed forces lose the initiative on the front, the number of drone attacks may gradually increase again. Especially if the Ukrainian armed forces manage to find new gaps in the defense of Moscow and in the Russian air defense system in general.
„The enemy has already experimented and will continue to experiment in finding ways to increase the effectiveness of their actions, as well as to deliver the most painful blows.” noted Fedutinov.
In addition, Kiev threatens to carry out new attacks in the near future. The state concern “Ukroboronprom” has announced the start of mass production of unmanned aircraft with a long range, which in the foreseeable future will be used for mass attacks deep into the territory of Russia, announced the general director of the concern German Smetanin.
According to him, the development of a Ukrainian analogue of the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 unmanned aircraft, on the basis of which the Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone is supposed to have been created, is underway. The official also announced the development of new UAVs with an even greater range of use.
According to some reports, Russia and Ukraine are planning an intense exchange of drone strikes next winter, amassing ever-larger stockpiles of drones. Therefore, it will become clear in the coming months whether the gradual reduction of Ukrainian raids on Moscow is a deliberate and misleading tactic, or whether the capital has now become an elusive target for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Translation: ES
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