l As the stakes for war end and Western pressure on Russia’s economy and oligarchs increases, the chances of the leader overthrown in a coup are growing, experts say.
l It was rather possible to be overthrown not by the military but by the political elite
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin acting rationally at all? No – the clear answer to this question is causing growing fear among Western leaders and analysts.
His order to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on high alert and the (in) clear threat of nuclear war if the West intervenes in the invasion of Ukraine shocked even his own military personnel.
Experts have already commented that with increasing bets on the outcome of the war and Western pressure on the Russian economy and oligarchs, the chances of Putin being removed by coup are growing. This is evidenced by information from the American secret services, according to which he is the master of the Kremlin
increasingly disillusioned with development
of military battles
in Ukraine. He felt under increasing pressure from both growing protests in his own country and unprecedented economic sanctions. These factors could confront Putin with a single option – namely to use even more violence. On the other hand, it can lead to the end of his rule.
Western media are already making lists of his possible successors.
Sergei Shoigu
(Defense Minister)
is the second most popular politician in Russia after Putin. He is from Chadan, Eastern Russia, and played an important role in organizing the invasion of Ukraine. Despite his loyalty to the current leader, he was caught on camera with a stressful face after Putin ordered him to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on high alert.
Although he has no military experience, Shoigu took over as head of the power ministry in 2012 and led the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
According to various reports, the minister is considered Russia’s greatest military leader after Georgi Zhukov, the general who defeated Nazi Germany in World War II.
However, according to experts, his rise to power would be complicated by his involvement in events in Ukraine. However, his advantage is that he is more pragmatic than Putin, which could lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory in a way that would thaw relations with the West.
“He is a very, very powerful man at the moment,” Vera Tolz-Zilitinkevich, a professor of Russian studies at the University of Manchester, told Shoigu. According to her, a change of Putin can be said only if the Russian army has lost the war.
Evgeny Minchenko, a political analyst who compiles a ranking of the power of Russian officials, said earlier this year: “There is currently only one member of the cabinet who is in Politburo 2.0. And this is Shoigu. ” The defense minister is close to Putin and regularly spends summer vacations with the president in Tuva, where the two men have been seen fishing and riding a boat with their shirts down.
Nikolai Patrushev
(Secretary of the Security Council)
is the former head of the FSB, which is the successor to the formidable Soviet KGB spy service. He has known Putin since the 1970s, when they worked together in the Leningrad KGB. His interviews portray him as a conspiracy theorist who believes that Western powers are seeking to destroy Russia. “The United States would rather Russia not exist as a state at all,” he said in an interview in 2015.
While he was head of the FSB, Britain found in an investigation that Patrushev most likely ordered the poisoning of former dissident agent Alexander Litvinenko with polonium on British soil in 2006.
And diplomatic sources said years ago that Russian spies accused of trying to overthrow Montenegro’s government in 2016 had left the country on Patrushev’s plane.
“It’s a pretty bad choice. But there is a possibility “, says Prof. Tolz-Zilitinkevich about the probability of the former spy chief to take the place of Vladimir Putin.
Valery Gerasimov
(Chief of General Staff
of the Armed Forces) has headed the Russian army since 2012, was appointed by Putin.
He is the strategist who created the Gerasimov Doctrine, which combines economic, cultural, informational and military tactics to achieve Moscow’s strategic goals. This includes Russia’s actions over the past two decades, such as alleged interference in the 2016 US presidential election and Russia’s successful bid to host the 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
Prof. Tolz-Zilitinkevich believes that it is possible that Gerasimov will be promoted by the military, but it is much more likely that Putin’s removal will come from the political elite.
“Russian history shows that the military is not usually involved in regime change,” she said. She claims that historically, the people under cover have always been under very strict control by politicians.
Mikhail Mishustin
(Prime Minister)
he took office just before the coronavirus pandemic began and was appointed following the resignation of former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev.
It is believed that the election of the former tax police officer as president would satisfy a number of groups in the Kremlin and in Russia itself.
The Moscow-born politician made a skilful move by touring the country to assess living conditions and support regional development.
“His choice would satisfy many different groups. He is a very good candidate for the system in Russia “, experts are convinced.
Mishustin is known for digitizing Russia’s tax system. He is an avid hockey player – a sport that has become a weakness for wealthy Russians like golf in the United States. The prime minister’s main task was to fulfill Putin’s promises to improve living standards. His success in this will determine his chances of becoming president.
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