This Tuesday, the so-called “Super Tuesday” will take place in the United States, the most important day of the presidential primary campaign because it is the day in which the most states vote and the most delegates are chosen for the party conventions. But this time, the expectation is lower. It happens that like never before in decades, both Republicans and Democrats arrive on Super Tuesday with candidacies that already seem defined. If there are no unforeseen events, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will meet again in the general elections on November 5. But despite being the clear favorites, they still must comply with the electoral schedule and complete the internal cycle.
The number of states that vote on “Super Tuesday” varies depending on the year. But commonly on this day a third of all delegates end up being assigned to the Republican and Democratic conventions. This means that if a candidate wins more than half of Tuesday’s races, he would practically be assured of victory in the primaries.
This year there will be 15 states that will vote on Tuesday: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. So will the territory of American Samoa.
Likewise, during that day the results of the Democratic contest in Iowa, which was held by mail for several weeks, will also be known. The Republican Party, meanwhile, held its caucus in that state in mid-January.
How many delegates does each party elect?
The current system encourages a competition that takes place in the first half of the election year, based on a calendar that is divided by states. Depending on each territory, a primary system is used, comparable to a traditional ballot box vote, or caucus, in which citizens linked to a certain party debate and elect their favorites, in some cases by show of hands and without the need for ballots.
In any case, the election is not direct, whether through primaries or caucuses, what citizens are deciding is the composition of the delegation of said state in the national conventions, where the proclamation of the person who will represent will be formally made. to training in the general elections.
The Republican Party will hold its convention between July 15 and 18 in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), while the Democrats will meet from August 19 to 22 in Chicago (Illinois).
During this year’s “Super Tuesday,” Republicans will elect 874 of their convention’s 2,429 delegates: Alabama (50), Alaska (29), American Samoa (9), Arkansas (40), California (169), Colorado (37) , Maine (20), Massachusetts (40), Minnesota (39), North Carolina (74), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Texas (161), Utah (40), Vermont (17) and Virginia ( 48).
Democrats, meanwhile, will elect 1,383 delegates of the 3,900 of their convention: Alabama (59), American Samoa (11), Arkansas (36), California (495), Colorado (87), Iowa (46), Maine (32 ), Massachusetts (116), Minnesota (93), North Carolina (133), Oklahoma (41), Tennessee (70), Texas (274), Utah (34), Vermont (24), Virginia (119).
Only those affiliated with each party can vote in the primaries, but six states have open primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.
Biden and Trump seek to seal their candidacies
Biden and Trump have been prevailing easily in the states where they already contested the primaries. In the Democratic race, the president obtained the 206 delegates disputed so far, while the magnate leads with 122 compared to the 24 achieved by the only rival still in the race, Nikki Haley, since another dozen abandoned the race due to their meager results. This Tuesday is the former US ambassador to the UN’s last opportunity to, at least, stop Trump’s overwhelming advance towards the nomination.
Opinion polls show the former president as a clear favorite in California and Texas, as well as states such as Alabama, Maine and Minnesota. His campaign team predicts that he will get at least 773 delegates on Super Tuesday. With this scenario, he could win the nomination one or two weeks later.
Despite his numerous legal problems, for which he even risks going to jail, the Republican magnate swept the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, the Virgin Islands, Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan. Following his resounding victories, he has repeatedly urged Haley to drop out of the race. However, the former South Carolina governor promised to move forward.
In her attempt to remain competitive, she has been touring the country with a powerful travel program, and her campaign command has deployed a leadership team in Georgia, where voters will go to the polls on March 12.
Biden, for his part, as is often the case with incumbent leaders seeking re-election, has easily overcome the internal races in which he only has one rival left in the race, Representative Dean Phillips (Minnesota), who still he did not obtain any delegates. The only focus of concern came last week in Michigan, where an organized attempt to vote “non-committed” in the primary there to protest the government’s support for Israel during the war in Gaza obtained 13% of the vote, a slightly higher percentage than that option obtained in the last primaries with a Democratic president.
Key states and other elections
Biden’s re-election campaign, for its part, has one of its main objectives to win North Carolina because it believes that those voters can help it defeat Trump in that state in the general elections. In the 2020 elections, the former Republican president won in that state by just over one percentage point.
North Carolina allows voters who are not affiliated with any party to participate in any primary they choose, which could boost Haley’s performance given her relative strength with independent voters compared to Trump.
Next Tuesday, in addition, not only the presidential primary will be contested. There will also be races for the Senate, the House of Representatives and some governorships.
One of the most important is the California primary for the Senate seat left vacant after the death of Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. Its temporary occupant, Laphonza Butler, is not running for a full term. Instead of the winners of the parties’ primaries facing off in November, California convenes all candidates in a single primary and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
In North Carolina, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper will vacate the seat. Attorney General Josh Stein has Cooper’s backing, and will face former state Supreme Court Associate Justice Mike Morgan as his main challenger.
The Republican front-runner is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who received Trump’s endorsement last year. However, his divisive figure has sparked controversy among some, having criticized the teaching of LGBTQ+ issues during sex education and for comments in a church that Christians are “called to be led by men.” His opponents, state Treasurer Dale Folwell and trial attorney Bill Graham, maintain that he is too polarizing to win in November.
In San Francisco, Mayor London Breed is pushing a ballot measure to expand police powers and use tactics like drones and surveillance cameras, and another to subject single adults on welfare to drug testing. The two initiatives come at a time when the city is plagued by homelessness and drug use, and Breed faces an electorate irritated by her own re-election in November.
History of Super Tuesday
The term “Super Tuesday” has existed since the 1970s. But in its beginnings this day was located at the end of the primary race. A decade later, in 1980, it was brought forward on the calendar to try to increase its influence.
This change was driven by southern states, which wanted to have greater influence in the race. At that time they proposed that having “Super Tuesday” closer to the start of the race would give greater prominence to that day.
Since then, “Super Tuesday” has left both parties with a clear favorite who, in most cases, ended up winning the nomination.
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