This week we get important key figures from the US and the UK, which will set the tone for upcoming decisions from the central banks. In addition, SAS has a deadline to receive indicative bids in its bankruptcy protection process.
Customers visit a discount store in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. This week will see new figures for US retail sales. Photo: PATRICK T. FALLON / AFPPublished: Published:
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We are in the middle of the joint holiday and this week we expect a good mix of macroeconomic key figures from the US, UK, China and Japan.
The key figures are particularly important for the decision-making basis and the development of interest rates on a global basis.
– It will be interesting to see whether the upcoming figures from the US will substantiate the market’s expectation of interest rate peaks in July, and whether the figures from the UK will result in a single or double increase, says chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov at Handelsbanken to E24.
Read on E24+
Ridiculously profitable
But already on Monday, SAS has deadline for submitting indicative bids to raise new capital. The company aims to raise SEK 9.5 billion. The final deadline is September 18.
SAS is currently in a legal process under bankruptcy protection in the USA to clean up the debt. The company states that it strives to complete the process around the turn of the year, while it has previously said “last part of the second half of the year”.
This is happening this week
SAS has a deadline for receiving indicative bids
GDP figures from China for the second quarter
Industrial production, retail trade, investment for June in China
Price level in Italy for June
Aker with performance figures
Schibsted with result figures
Retail trade and industrial production for June in the United States
Stock count of unsold goods for May in the USA
Morgan Stanley result
Bank of America results
Yara with results
Revised inflation figures for the eurozone
UK price level figures for June
Housing construction figures for June in the US
Weekly figures on salmon exports
Netflix results
Tesla result
Telenor with quarterly figures
Industry expectations for July in France
Producer price index in Germany in June
Norsk Hydro with quarterly figures
Japanese inflation
UK retail sales for June
sea view
Aviation analyst Hans Jørgen Elnæs believes the company will succeed in raising the capital, according to NTB.
– Since we have not heard anything from SAS or the bankruptcy court in New York, and the deadline expires on Monday, I think it is likely that a lot is in place. If not, we should be able to assume that there was a stock exchange announcement, if they wanted to delay the process longer, says Elnæs to the newspaper.
Flight analyst Hans Jørgen Elnæs. Photo: E24/Nikolaj Blegvad
At Oslo Børs, the quarterly season is well under way, and companies such as Aker, Yara and Norsk Hydro are among those opening their accounting books next week. In the afternoon and evening hours, several quarterly figures from the USA will also be released.
Interest rate peak in July
In the US, we have started to see tendencies towards a moderation of economic activity, which could mean a pause in interest rate hikes. On Tuesday, we get important key figures on retail trade, industrial production and inventories.
The retail trade is important for the interest rate decision later this month, according to Hov.
– There, an increase is expected partly due to increased car sales where there have been discounts. It is therefore a temporary effect, he says.
Going forward, it is expected that the interest-sensitive parts of household consumption, including car purchases, will moderate more in addition to a reduction in demand and thus weaker consumption trends.
also read
Price growth in the USA moderates more than expected: – Increase in July anyway
The market is currently waiting for us to see a dove duet “Haukete” and “dove” describe opposing views on what interest rates the economic picture requires. A “hawk” supports higher interest rates, while a “dove” wants lower interest rates. central bank when the Federal Reserve (Fed) presents its decision on 26 July.
– Should we see more signs of weakness in consumption, it builds up that the Fed may reach the interest rate peak in July, says Hov.
Core inflation crucial
On Wednesday we will get figures on the price level in June for Great Britain. It will be the last key figure before the interest rate decision from the Bank of England on 3 August.
– Core inflation Core inflation Core inflation (CPI-JAE), which is also called underlying inflation, is adjusted for tax changes and without energy goods. is expected to remain unchanged at 7.1 per cent and thus there will be very strong price pressure, says Hov.
There has been strong wage growth recently in the UK, and the market expects further increases from the British central bank in August.
Chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov in Handelsbanken Photo: Adrian Nielsen
– The question is the strength. If we get an upside surprise on the numbers, we might get a so-called double increase of 0.50 percentage points. In the same way, a lower inflation level will speak for a single increase, says the chief economist.
A decrease in the inflation level is otherwise expected due to energy prices, and therefore it is not as significant as core inflation.
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“Ice inflation”: – Paid around NOK 60 for one
Slow growth in China
Next week we will also get key figures from Asia. Inflation figures come from Japan ahead of the interest rate meeting at the end of July, where there are few expectations of further action.
The GDP figures for the second quarter in China are expected to be sharply up due to the pandemic shutdown last year. At the same time, other and more relevant activity indicators are coming, such as figures on industrial production, retail trade and investments.
It will provide more up-to-date information on activity in the world’s second largest economy, and reflect current developments.
– In China there has been more stimulus recently, so nothing further is expected from the public authorities there now. But it will be exciting to see what happens in the future anyway, as the reopening has been slower than expected, says Hov.
2023-07-16 18:46:51
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