Feb 21, 2024, 12:25 PM ET
Kevin Pelton ranks the real NBA contenders in four tiers as we head into the final stretch of the regular season.
With the All-Star Game in the books, it’s time to reset the race for the NBA title heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
Los Boston Celticspreseason co-favorites for the championship along with the Milwaukee Bucks after incorporating Jrue Holiday y Kristaps Porzingishave lived up to that expectation by taking a four-game lead over the rest of the league with a balanced combination of offense (No. 1 per possession) and defense (No. 3) that bodes well for a run deep in the playoffs.
Which teams have the best chance of winning an NBA championship this season? ESPN
In the West, the race for first place is more competitive. Although The Minnesota Timberwolves They have achieved a 1.5 game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunderthe top four teams, including the defending NBA champion, the Denver Nuggetsare separated by only three games.
Meanwhile, three of the teams with the most playoff experience in the field, the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers y Miami Heatlurk in the play-in range after the Heat and Lakers made it past the play-in a year ago to reach the conference finals (and, in Miami’s case, the NBA Finals).
Now that rosters are largely set with the trade deadline completed and the buyout market is unlikely to produce any other notable players, let’s look at who is most likely to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June by ranking the contenders in levels based on your chances of winning.
Level 1: the favorite
Boston Celtics (+260 ESPN BET odds)
We may say in June that the Celtics’ 18th championship, which would surpass the Lakers’ total in Minneapolis and Los Angeles, was inevitable. Boston is putting together an all-time regular season. The Celtics threaten to become the 13th team in NBA history to outscore their opponents by at least 10 points per game.
There was a time when that almost assured a title. Until the Warriors’ first trophy in 2015, the only team in the plus-10 club that didn’t win the championship was the 1971-72 Bucks, who ran into another member of the group (the Lakers) in the conference finals. Since then, only one of the last four teams to accomplish the feat (2016-17 Golden State which added Kevin Durant) has completed his career in the playoffs, with the Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs from 2015-16, as well as the 2019-20 Bucks as victims of surprises.
Despite the recent disconnect between regular season and playoff success, there are reasons to believe in Boston. The Celtics’ offseason moves addressed their biggest postseason flaw: late-game offense. Boston’s offensive rating ranks fifth in NBA Advanced Stats defines key situations (when the score is within five points in the last five minutes of regulation time or any overtime) as) after finishing 11th. last season and 26th. in 2021-22.
Tier 2: Featured Contenders
Denver Nuggets (+450)
LA Clippers (+500)
Milwaukee Bucks (+650)
This tier could be defined as teams in position to have home field advantage in the first round with a history of playoff success.
Recent results favor the Nuggets, who bring back the starting five that went 16-4 in the 2023 playoffs. That lineup remains elite, having outscored its opponents by 13 points per 100 possessions, which is the fourth best among units with at least 250 minutes together this season, according to NBA Advanced Statsand nearly identical to last year’s +13.1 net rating.
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The question is whether Denver can complete a rotation as productive as last season, when Christian Braun y Jeff Green They joined Bruce Brown in giving coach Michael Malone enough options off the bench during the postseason. Brown and Green left in the offseason, while Braun hasn’t taken the step forward the Nuggets hoped for in his second NBA season. Additionally, a deeper Western Conference means Denver might not have the benefit of home field advantage beyond the first round, much less the entire run like last year, when the Nuggets went 10-1 in the height in the playoffs.
The Clippers have climbed out of an early 3-7 hole to third place in the West, which would be their highest finish since finishing second in the 2019-20 campaign that concluded in the Orlando bubble. With Kawhi Leonard healthy and performing at a top-five level, as well as James Harden Fitting in, this looks like the Clippers’ best chance at a title since Leonard’s partial ACL tear during the 2021 playoffs.
As uneven as Milwaukee’s season has been, including a midseason coaching change with Doc Rivers taking over, it’s impossible to ignore the Bucks’ talent. In that same ranking of the most effective lineups with a lot of minutes this season, Milwaukee’s starting five rank first with a net rating of plus-15.3, although aided by the opponent’s imprecise three-point shooting.
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Level 3: the hopeful
Cleveland Cavaliers (+2500)
The Minnesota Timberwolves (+2500)
New York Knicks (+2000)
Oklahoma City Thunder (+2500)
Philadelphia 76ers (+3000)
Phoenix Suns (+1500)
This level is largely represented by newcomers to the ranks of contenders. If the season ended today, four of the eight teams hosting first-round playoff series would have combined to win a series since 2018 (the Knicks last season). By contrast, of the four teams above these contenders in the tiers, all but the Clippers (three) have won eight series in that span alone.
Given the importance of playoff experience, it’s fair to be wary of this group, though only to a point. This level features three of the top four teams in point differential this season (Cleveland, Minnesota and Oklahoma City), while New York posted a league-best 14-2 record with a plus-15.4 differential in January before be affected by injuries. Home field advantage remains a huge factor in playoff success, and there’s a good chance that at least one of those four teams will reach the conference finals.
The Sixers and the Suns complete this level, in very different positions from the rest of the group.
Phoenix began the season as contenders in betting odds, but the Suns now appear unlikely to gain home field advantage due in large part to injuries and their limited depth. The argument for the Suns to advance from the bottom of the group is based on their high level ability when healthy: Phoenix’s starting five have a plus-14.9 net rating that’s on par with the best in the NBA.
In the case of Philadelphia, the health of Joel Embiid it’s key. If he returns to MVP level for the playoffs after knee surgery earlier this month, the Sixers will still be a scary opponent. At best, however, Embiid’s injury and Philadelphia’s drop in the standings means a tougher postseason path that would almost certainly require beating three other teams in the top three tiers to reach the Finals.
Level 4: Long Odds
Dallas Mavericks (+3500)
Golden State Warriors (+5000)
Los Angeles Lakers (+2500)
Miami Heat (+4000)
New Orleans Pelicans (+6000)
Given the Heat’s run to the Finals last year, there is precedent for considering these longshots as title contenders. Still, it would be surprising if any of them took the championship. No team that has won it all since the Houston Rockets from 1994-95 has played at a pace of less than 52 wins during the regular season, and the best team in this group (the Pelicans) would need to go 19-10 the rest of the season to get there.
Despite that track record, ESPN BET odds still give the Lakers a better shot at winning the title than the Sixers, which seems like too much deference to the team’s history. LeBron James. Yes, the Lakers have righted the ship lately, winning six of their last seven before the All-Star break. They have still been outscored throughout the season, and this year’s additions are unlikely (Spencer Dinwiddieafter the Toronto Raptors he was released, and Gabe Vincent’s imminent return from knee surgery) will have the impact of the 2023 deadline moves.
More than anything, the Lakers are likely to run into much more formidable opponents in the Western Conference. Last year’s play-in win over the Timberwolves and first-round win over the Memphis Grizzlies were aided by injuries, and the Lakers (43-39) faced a similar Golden State team (44-38) in the semifinals. The Lakers’ path back to the conference finals this year would likely involve several teams comfortably surpassing 50 wins. Although the Lakers and Warriors (who also played their best basketball recently with Draymond Green in the lineup) have history and the Mavericks have star power, it is New Orleans of this group that has truly played the best. The Pelicans’ point differential of over 4.3 points places them in fourth place in the West, ahead of not only Phoenix but also Denver.
Los Sacramento Kings They have the best record of any team left out of this level, two games ahead of the Indiana Pacers in the loss column. Sacramento also has playoff experience from a close seven-game series against Golden State last year. Still, the Kings’ plus-0.5 point differential puts them in 10th place in the West, and they are unlikely to avoid the play-in, which means a tough road in the playoffs. I don’t think they will be contenders for the title this year.
In the East, the inexperience of the other teams in the fight for the sixth and last guaranteed playoff spot (the Pacers and Orlando Magic) leaves Miami completely alone at this level. Frankly, there’s nothing in the Heat’s stats to suggest a deep playoff run is coming, and unlike last season, they haven’t underperformed from 3-point range (37%, compared to 33% at this time a year ago). Still, the Heat have surprised us too many times to completely rule him out.
2024-02-21 17:50:24
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