Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) sees baht movement next week (December 12-16) at 34.50-35.30 baht per dollar.
Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center evaluates important factors to monitor, including the results of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting and the dot plots, the results of the ECB and the BOE meetings, foreign capital flows (flow), and China’s position on COVID-19 measures. Key US economic data, including consumer price index (CPI), retail sales and industrial production data for November. New York Fed Manufacturing Survey and Philadelphia Fed December Outlook Survey Results. Markets are also eagerly awaiting December preliminary PMI data for the US, Eurozone and UK, as well as November economic data for China, such as industrial production, retail sales and house price indices.
However, the baht movement was volatile. The baht rose from its highest level in nearly six months at 34.58 baht to the dollar. Let’s gradually weaken from the beginning to the middle of the week. Among the dollar’s support from the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Also, many Asian currencies are under depreciation pressure. (Despite news that the Chinese government is preparing to ease COVID measures) due to concerns about the weak signal of the global economy. again in line with foreign investors’ net purchases of Thai bonds.
Also, the dollar has a negative factor in US labor market data. exiting weak (Number of US continuing jobless claims rose to a 10-month high at 1.67 million), further supporting the possibility that the Fed will begin to ease its outlook for policy rate hikes at the FOMC meeting on December 13 and 14. However, the appreciation of the baht slows down. down at the end of the week before entering the long holiday in the domestic market.
However, on Friday, December 9, 2022, the baht closed the market at 34.79 baht to the dollar. Compared to Friday (December 2) level of 34.77 baht per dollar for the state of foreign investors’ investment portfolio between December 6 and 9, 2022, although foreign investors sell net Thai stocks of 5.148 million baht, but it has net inflows into the Thai bond market of 14,149 million baht (net purchases 17,565 million baht minus matured debt securities 3,416 million baht).
