Mr. Kobsit Silpachai, Economic and Capital Markets Research Manager Kasikorn Bank (KBANK), told the ‘Economic Outlook Thailand Forecast’ seminar, he has revised the 2022 baht target to 35.25 baht/dollar from the previous estimate of 37 .50 baht/dollar due to the financial market. have confidence that inflation in the US has passed its peak This should slow down the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). And there is a possibility that the interest rate will have to be lowered within the next year. This forecast caused the US dollar to decline. The baht is expected to have an appreciating direction in 2013. giving a frame at 33.50-34.00 baht/dollar
“In the coming months, the baht may fluctuate. and after March will see the baht appreciation more clearly from inbound tourism. However, the baht may not appreciate in a leap forward,” Kobsit said.
While the domestic factor affecting the baht in 2023 is the highest economic growth in Thailand in 2023 even though the world is facing a recession. It is expected that 20 million tourists will travel to Thailand next year, mostly the hope of Chinese tourists. Thailand’s current account balance will improve. This was supported by tourism and lower energy price pressures. While the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will continue to raise interest rates in 2023 due to inflation pressure. and to narrow the interest rate gap between BOTs and the Fed down by next week The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% and continue to hike policy rates to 1, 75%.
On the foreign factors side, the Fed slowed the hike in the policy rate and cut the policy rate next year. weakens the US dollar
China side may postpone the opening of the country Because people infected with COVID-19 In addition, the global economic downturn put pressure on the growth of the global economy affecting Thai exports There are also geopolitical tensions that need to be monitored.
“There is very little chance that the baht will have the chance to touch 40.00 baht/dollar or touch 32.00 baht/dollar like it did earlier this year. Whereas the appropriate currency for next year is 34.00 baht /dollar, with tourism as the main major factor and baht single factor especially tourists from China This way the current account balance will no longer be negative can cause the baht to appreciate much Therefore, it may be necessary to issue measures, for example on exports” Kobsit said.
