Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or KBANK Looking at the movement of the baht in the coming week (2-6 Jan. ’23) at the level of 34.00-34.80 baht/dollar since the market close on Friday 30 Dec. ’22 at the level of 34.56 baht/dollar dollar by important factors to monitor, namely the inflation rate in December 65 of Thailand Foreign Capital Directorate Covid situation in China and the movement of Asian currencies.
The key economic data from the US is nonfarm payrolls. unemployment rate Private sector employment data, PMI and ISM indices, manufacturing and services sector in December. Number of weekly jobless claims and Fed meeting notes
Furthermore, the market is still waiting to follow the December inflation data. Eurozone and Manufacturing and Services PMIs in December. also from China, the Eurozone and England.
In the last week of 2022, the baht moved volatilely in an appreciating frame. The baht and most regional currencies appreciated alongside the yuan amid positive signs after China lifted quarantine measures for overseas travellers. In addition, the baht is backed by the Foreign Capital Directorate. which has reverted to a net buying position in both stock exchanges and Thai bonds. However, the picture of strengthening baht eased somewhat during the week. according to the recovery of the dollar and US bond yields This continues to benefit from the Fed’s trend towards higher interest rates.
For the big picture in 2022, the baht has depreciated by about 3.3% to 34.56 baht/dollar (as of December 30, 2022) from the end of 2021 to 33.41 baht/dollar. Most of the baht is in the first 10 months of 2022, mainly by the appreciation of the US dollar. Under the direction of tightening monetary policy by accelerating the Fed’s interest rate hike, however, the baht began to gradually strengthen in the November-December period. 2022 after the Fed began signaling a slowdown in the magnitude of rate hikes. Also, there is further support from the hope that China will gradually open up the country.
