/ world today news/ Has Kazakhstan, like Armenia, begun to gradually move away from Russia? At least some experts have come to this exact conclusion after a number of reports about the “opening of a NATO center” in this country. Astana has very close relations with the US, but until a certain point it does not pose a threat. And even the opposite.
A new NATO peacekeeping center was opened in Kazakhstan. A few days ago, precisely such publications began to appear in the Russian media. They proved so resonant that Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov was forced to comment on them, stating the need to gather “more detailed information,” including from “our friends from Astana.”
The friends themselves immediately explained that only the opening of a new conference hall of the center for peacekeeping operations of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan took place with the participation of the US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum. The center itself, they say, has existed since 2006. It provides “language training and preparation of military, police and civilian personnel to participate in peacekeeping operations according to UN standards, training in the basics of international humanitarian law and the provisions of the peacekeeping regulatory framework activities’.
The “Center for Peacekeeping Operations” near Almaty is a US Army facility where Americans train the Kazakh military. Practice shows that they prepare poorly: the landing units, whose officers were trained there by American instructors, were the first to surrender to the rebels during the events of 2022,” said the head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, Nikita Mendkovich.
And perhaps the information about this center would not have caused such a resonance if it was an isolated case of cooperation between Kazakhstan and the United States – open enemies of two key Kazakh partners (Russia and China). However, this case is not isolated.
“On the territory of the republic, there are at least two US military biological laboratories in Almaty and Gvardeyskoye (Zhambyl region), which are funded by the Pentagon and managed through a special ‘biological security’ department in the US embassy,” Nikita Mendkovich continues. “Of course, the work of American biological laboratories in Kazakhstan and a training center in Almaty with the participation of the United States violates the obligations of the republic within the framework of the CSTO and the SCO. In the same basket are the statements of the Kazakh authorities about the “unequivocal adherence to the regime of sanctions” of the West in relation to Russia.
In this situation, voices of dissatisfaction with Kazakhstan’s position are expected in Russia. Speculation that Astana, after Yerevan, is moving to the West. “Kazakhstan is walking on the edge,” Russian political scientists claim. What is happening in relations between Kazakhstan and the West?
American-Kazakhstan relations are indeed developing steadily today. “Both sides are interested in each other. The United States, first, invested very heavily in Kazakhstan’s economy. Second, the United States views its relationship with Kazakhstan in the context of fighting Russia and China at the same time. By increasing their influence in Kazakhstan, they simultaneously create problems for both Moscow and Beijing,” explains Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher Institute of Technology.
For Kazakhstan, relations with the USA are the most important element of multi-vector development.
“As he claims regional leadership in Central Asia, he does not want to become absolutely dependent on Russia and China. Therefore, Astana will constantly balance relations with Moscow and Beijing through Washington. It will always maintain more intensive relations with the West than the less ambitious countries of Central Asia,” Suslov continues.
On the other hand, this multi-vector approach cannot be compared to Armenia’s or even Belarus’ before 2020. Astana understands that, unlike Yerevan and Minsk, it simply by definition cannot make strategic choices in favor of the West. “Nikol Pashinyan hopes that Armenia will get membership in European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. That Armenia will become either a candidate for EU membership or a member of the EU. Or maybe NATO. In the case of Kazakhstan, this is impossible due to its geographical location. Therefore, he is forced to maintain a balancing policy,” says Dmitry Suslov.
This policy in particular defines the Kazakh approach to sanctions that is so troubling to some Russian experts. Astana does not want to enter into an open conflict with the US Treasury Department.
“Companies that benefit from or cooperate with sanctioned entities may be subject to financial freeze or export control sanctions. Simply put, the West can impose export restrictions against a country that supplies Russia with electronics from the European Union or America. The number of sanctioned goods amounts to thousands, but now the US and the EU are putting their main emphasis on electronics,” recalls Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian Council on International Relations. “There were precedents for secondary sanctions. For example, on July 20, four Kyrgyz companies were included in the lists of blocked persons. Companies from India, China, Finland and Liechtenstein became subject to these sanctions. The government of Kazakhstan or any other country should pay attention to the risks,” he added.
On the other hand, Russian-Kazakh trade cooperation is structured very flexibly. “Kazakhstan currently remains an important trade partner of the Russian Federation, despite regular statements about ‘observing restrictions,'” recalls Nikita Mendkovich. “The republic cannot refuse trade with the Russian Federation, circumventing sanctions, as it brings great profits, significantly increasing export earnings for Russia.
And in this situation, it is difficult to demand that Kazakhstan stop its diplomatic maneuvers. Moreover, the issue of compliance with sanctions is not only a public but also a private issue.
“Individual entrepreneurs decide for themselves what is more important to them: preserving the Russian market or avoiding secondary sanctions from the West. And this problem affects not only Kazakhstan – most countries have not imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation, but national businesses in China, India and Indonesia are very careful in cooperation with Moscow, recalls Ivan Timofeev. “Kazakhstan topics are periodically picked up by the media. I would be more careful about this, as our opponents can use these posts to their advantage,” adds the expert.
Indeed, for Kazakhstan, the issue of relations with the West is an element of national security. “Under almost no circumstances will Kazakhstan give up its ties with the US and the West in general.” For him, this is a guarantee of independence,” explains Suslov.
According to him, “the level of American-Kazakh cooperation should burden Moscow only if it becomes openly anti-Russian or anti-Chinese,” “if Kazakhstan allows itself to be used in anti-Russian politics.” That is, to put it simply, Russia should get involved only when the Kazakh authorities lose their balance in their multi-vector approach. And there were such cases. “For example, under pressure from Moscow and Beijing, the Kazakh army stopped the Steppen Orel joint exercise with the United States in 2020. In 2022, a ban on the export of ammunition that ended up in Ukraine was introduced,” recalls Nikita Mendkovich.
In other cases, Moscow may simply adapt to reality. “To create a transaction system that is safe from Western tracking. Das works in terms of carrying out commercial operations with minimal risks for our citizens and legal entities, as well as for foreign counterparties,” says Ivan Timofeev. “Furthermore, when we fight against American intervention in the region, we must rely on the position of the population.” The majority of Kazakhs of all nationalities are on our side, and the role of our diplomacy is precisely to ensure that the authorities will not limit their freedom of expression,” says Nikita Mendkovich.
And, of course, to take advantage of the mistakes of the Americans. “Kazakhstan’s MFA sees the rhetoric of compliance with sanctions as a way to “woo” Washington and Brussels. Western countries are well aware that Kazakh diplomats are cynically deceiving them, and we also understand their dishonesty. America is putting pressure on Astana, threatening a new color revolution,” continues Nikita Mendkovic.
And this pressure, in the conditions of Kazakhstan’s complete dependence on Russia and China, cannot but cause a total rejection among the Kazakh leadership. Especially against the background of a completely different approach on the part of Moscow, which only wants the limits of reasonableness not to be crossed in this multi-vector policy.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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