Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) views the movement of the baht next week (18-22 Dec. 2023) at the level of 34.40-35.00 baht per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be followed, including signals of foreign capital. The direction of gold prices in the world market Results of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the setting of the LPR interest rate by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
Meanwhile, important US economic figures include the confidence index and expected inflation figures from the perspective of US consumers. In December, home construction figures Second-hand home sales New home sales Personal income/expenses and inflation measured from PCE/Core PCE Price Indices in November GDP numbers for 3Q23 (final) and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the Consumer Price Index for November. of the Eurozone and England as well.
In the past week (12-15 Dec.), the baht strengthened past the level of 35.00 baht per dollar. From a brief depreciation at the beginning of the week after reporting the November Consumer Price Index numbers of the United States (CPI rose 0.1% MoM but the market expected 0.0% MoM), stimulating expectations that The Fed may not be in a hurry to signal monetary easing. It will maintain the policy interest rate at the same level continuously for the next several months.
However, the baht strengthened in the middle to the end of the week. amid selling pressure of the dollar and the sharp fall of US bond yields After the results of the Fed meeting reflected that The Fed may be finished with its rate hike cycle, as the dot plot suggests three rate cuts may begin in 2024.
In addition, signals of continuing to hold interest rates high by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) also put pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, the baht received additional support from the recovery of gold prices in the world market. and the strengthening of regional currencies.
Last Friday (Dec. 15), the baht closed at 34.84 baht per dollar, compared to 35.33 baht per dollar. on the previous Friday (Dec. 8) for the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolios. Between 12-15 December 2023, foreign investors made net purchases of Thai stocks of 5,363 million baht and had net inflows into the Thai bond market of 1,623 million baht (net purchases of bonds of 1,663 million baht, deducting expired debt instruments of 40 million baht).
2023-12-16 05:40:00
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