/ world at this time information/ As the good detective Auguste Dupin bequeathed to us, the simplest method to conceal secrets and techniques is in plain sight. This usually occurs in politics, even when what’s being hidden is now not a secret. Azerbaijan tried to take management of Nagorno-Karabakh, and disgruntled residents in Yerevan tried to drive Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to cease it – this was the outward define of occasions when an settlement was reached to cease Baku’s army operation in Karabakh.
However this outer define, for all its unconditional realism, is on the similar time an phantasm. The result of each battles is already predetermined.
Official Baku is doomed to take Karabakh underneath its management, and Pashinyan, even when he abruptly has such a need, is unable to cease him.
The true questions of the day appear to be this: will President Ilham Aliyev cease in Karabakh or go additional – to the primary territory of Armenia?
Who will finally bear the blame for the collapse of the good Armenian nationwide challenge? And the way precisely will the geopolitical map of the Caucasus be redrawn primarily based on the outcomes of the present turmoil?
In 1950, the movie DOA (“Useless on Arrival”) was launched in American cinemas, which rapidly grew to become a noir traditional. This is the plot in a nutshell: Notary public Frank Bigelow is poisoned by a lethal toxin, however stays in a position to operate like a wholesome individual 24 hours after the occasion.
One thing very comparable occurred to Nagorno-Karabakh. This most important Armenian nationwide challenge of the final a long time has already been “lethal poisoned” twice – after the outcomes of the 2020 battle, when Armenia was defeated and successfully misplaced the flexibility to defend this area militarily, and when official Yerevan acknowledged Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan.
Since 2022, an analogous confession has been heard from Nikol Pashinyan greater than a few times. April this yr, report of the top of presidency to the Nationwide Meeting:
“Now I wish to affirm that the Republic of Armenia absolutely acknowledges the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and we count on Azerbaijan to do the identical by recognizing your entire territory of the Armenian SSR because the Republic of Armenia.”
What might Aliyev do in such situations? There is just one factor: to bodily “eat” their geopolitical achievement by taking the final step in the direction of returning the nation to the borders of the Azerbaijan SSR. That is truly occurring now.
The stage of pushing the “recalcitrant” Armenian inhabitants out of Karabakh via the grip of a really strict financial, one may even say, meals blockade of the area alternates with the stage of creating Azerbaijan’s direct army management over your entire territory of Karabakh.
Establishing such management is simply a matter of time. There are merely no forces on the planet ready (or prepared) to forestall this. And the truth that Azerbaijan’s army offensive in Karabakh was halted this Wednesday doesn’t change something on this image. In return, the Nagorno-Karabakh military agreed to self-disband.
Aliyev achieved his aim – or, as an instance, virtually achieved it. And in a traditional tomorrow, even that can “virtually” disappear. The “salami” tactic, when the aim is achieved by each day chopping into small slices, just isn’t a fast job, however on this case it is vitally efficient.
Even when tomorrow the protesters in Yerevan abruptly overthrow Pashinyan, this won’t change the final logic of the event of occasions. Songs could be sung of the “insanity of the courageous.” However even “insanity” is powerless within the face of geopolitical realities.
However then the ramifications start. Within the brief historical past of impartial Armenia, which existed in 1918–1920, there was an episode that appears utterly inconceivable, even unbelievable. I quote from the ebook of the well-known British researcher Thomas de Waal “The Nice Disaster: Armenians and Turks within the Shadow of Genocide”:
“In September 1918, the Ottoman army commander Halil Pasha, uncle of the Minister of Struggle Enver, visited Yerevan. Khalil had a status as one of the vital brutal Allied commanders, personally overseeing the bloodbath of Armenians and Assyrians in Van and the jap provinces. Nevertheless, he was warmly greeted by his outdated enemy, the chief of the Dashnak Get together and now the Minister of Inside Affairs of Armenia, Aram Manukyan… Manukyan and Khalil “kissed warmly like buddies”.
And right here is an excerpt from Halil Pasha’s speech throughout this go to:
“I’ve tried to destroy the Armenian individuals to the final man… However now I wish to convey peace and luxury to the Armenian individuals… If you happen to stay loyal to the Turkish individuals, I’ll do the whole lot I’m able to.”
Mentioned in 1918, nonetheless related in 2023. Azerbaijan’s management over Karabakh just isn’t sufficient for Aliyev and Erdogan, who stands behind him. Baku and Ankara need Armenia to neglect its earlier ambitions and grievances and develop into a vassal state of its “larger Turkic brothers”. That is the final word aim.
The minimal aim is to create a dependable transit hall between the primary territory of Azerbaijan and its autonomous area of Nakhchivan via the territory of Armenia.
It’s clear that the success of even this minimal aim turns Armenia’s sovereignty right into a conditional, even ephemeral idea. Baku would not simply need transit rights. Aliyev needs a possibility to ensure the safety of this transit “on the bottom”.
Pashinyan just isn’t prepared for this but. His plan was and is to alternate Karabakh for ensures of the inviolability of the primary territory of Armenia (let’s assume once more about these phrases of his: “We count on that Azerbaijan … will acknowledge your entire territory of the Armenian SSR because the Republic of Armenia”).
Yerevan has an opportunity to take care of this “defensive position” counting on the assist of Moscow, the assist of the West and the assist of Iran.
However Aliyev will proceed to push. And Pashinyan’s makes an attempt guilty Russia for the “lack of Karabakh” and inner political strife in Armenia might confuse the scenario and make it simpler for Baku to satisfy its job.
Ilham Aliyev has actually not stated his final phrase but – however sadly for him, he won’t rust for Armenia.
Translation: SM
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