Vice President Kamala Harris has received an endorsement from President Joe Biden, making her a near-certain Democratic front-runner against Donald Trump in November’s election.
But how would Harris fare against Trump?
A recent survey by the New York Times/Sienadated July 12, showed Trump barely leading Biden in national polls and could win in November.
But when compared to Harris, the same poll showed the vice president leading Trump by a margin of one point.
The poll, conducted before Biden dropped out of the race and before Harris announced she would run, found Harris outperforming Trump in every age group except among those 65 and older, who would lean toward Trump if Harris were on the ticket.
Young voters in particular were strong supporters of Harris, who polls showed a 16-point lead over Trump among voters under 30.
Following the announcement of Biden’s resignation, a Democratic Political Action Committee advertising campaign entitled “Kamala Harris for America” was launched. aimed at young voters from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The “Kamala Harris for America” ad highlights the vice president’s stance on key issues for young voters, such as climate change and abortion rights.
White college-educated voters, on the other hand, lean slightly more toward Harris than Biden, with both candidates leading Trump by 24 and 22 points respectively in this voting group.
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Additionally, Kamala Harris has received support from young celebrities, including Ariana Grande and Charli XCX. (Getty/Instagram)
However, Kamala Harris’s candidacy has little support among Trump’s key base of supporters (white Americans without a college education) and appears to push more voters from this group to the right (+38) than a Biden candidacy (+36).
Across all counts, Harris is drawing more support from ethnic minority voters, with a 64-point lead over Trump among black voters, and a 16-point lead among voters from other ethnic groups.
Women are also more likely to vote for Democrats with Harris on the ticket, and she held a 17-point lead in the polls. In fact, women voters were already more likely to vote against Trump, as Biden already had a 14-point lead with this segment of the electorate at the time.
Trump was leading in seven swing states ahead of Biden, according to the latest Emerson College polls from July 16. However, Harris could come close to overcoming Trump’s lead in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, with Harris at 47% and Trump at 48%, according to another Emerson College poll. New York Times July 12th.
Although Biden won his home state by 1.17% in 2020, he has since lost his lead, trailing Trump by 3%.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, replacing Biden with Harris would strengthen the Democratic lead from a 3% margin to a 5% margin.
All of the swing states appear to be interested in a new Democratic candidate, an Emerson College poll revealed on July 17.
When compared to a hypothetical “young, qualified Democrat,” Trump loses in seven of the key swing states.
Voters in Michigan and Georgia, in particular, gave this possible alternative candidate a 10-point advantage.
Other polls, however, show that none of the potential Democratic candidates — Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris or Gretchen Whitmer — polled particularly well against Trump.
A July 12 PBS News poll shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom could win 50% of American voters’ support, on par with Biden and Harris. Newsom publicly endorsed Harris in a post on Twitter/X.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer had the worst showing of the three, though she tied Trump with 49 percent of the vote.
Whitmer has not yet endorsed Harris, but said in a statement that she will do everything she can “to make sure Democrats win and to stop Donald Trump.”
While no Democratic candidate has yet secured a significant lead over Trump, the climate of uncertainty may have left Democratic voters undecided. It is also worth noting that Harris will choose a running mate who may affect the polls in unexpected ways.
