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Kamala Harris v Donald Trump: Who is better for Asia? – Americas

Headline: Pandas to Debut Amidst Tension: A New Era for US-China Relations?

As America welcomes its 47th president to the White House, the arrival of two giant pandas at the Smithsonian National Zoo underscores the complexities of US-China relations. Slated for their public debut on January 24, 2025, Bao Li and Qing Bao bring both charm and a potent symbol of soft power, reigniting interest in the bilateral relationship at a pivotal moment when diplomatic tensions have reached a critical juncture.

A Fresh Beginning or a Fraying Alliance?

The significance of Bao Li and Qing Bao’s arrival couldn’t be more poignant, entering a landscape of strained ties following years of contentious trade relations and geopolitical rivalries. Since the Nixon administration, pandas have served as furry ambassadors, generating goodwill and fostering dialogue. However, with the recent history of escalating tariffs and a chilling atmosphere in diplomatic exchanges, their debut arrives amidst heightened skepticism about the future of US-China relations.

The upcoming presidential election on November 5, with the possibility of a second term for Donald Trump or the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris, adds another layer of uncertainty. Analysts suggest that Asia appears cautiously optimistic about Harris, predicting a return to a more predictable and consultative foreign policy approach akin to that of President Biden. In contrast, Trump’s anticipated America First policies could trigger significant tariff hikes and exacerbate existing tensions.

Diplomats Weigh In: Harris vs. Trump

According to Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Liew Chin Tong, the difference between Harris and Trump is essentially a matter of “not direction, but intensity.” Both candidates offer bilateral strategies that are unlikely to revert to the perceived simplicity of pre-1995 world trade dynamics. With Trump’s first term marked by isolationist tendencies, some experts fear that a return to his administration would leave Southeast Asian countries grimacing as they gear up for potentially disruptive trade policies.

“We will deal with the consequences of elections, and we will engage whoever is victorious,” remarked Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, illustrating the pragmatic stance many Asian nations are adopting in anticipation of the election outcomes.

Hopes for Stabilization Through Cultural Exchange

While experts express apprehension regarding diplomatic relations, there’s cautious optimism that the arrival of the pandas could bridge divides and foster constructive dialogue. The Chinese Embassy in Washington expressed hope that the pandas would catalyze improved exchanges between the two nations. “We hope the arrival of the pandas will inject fresh impetus into exchanges between China and the US,” stated embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu.

However, some scholars caution against over-optimism. Jia Qingguo from Peking University highlights that while many in China favor Harris’ likely continuation of Biden’s engagement policies, they worry about diminished people-to-people exchanges should Trump regain the presidency.

Taiwan: The Potential Flashpoint

As US-China relations remain tenuous, Taiwan emerges as a potential flashpoint, with observers closely monitoring how the incoming administration handles its policy. Trump’s previous approach, including a controversial phone call to Taiwan’s president shortly after his 2016 election, raised eyebrows in Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Analysts speculate whether a re-elected Trump might repeat such provocative gestures or adopt a more transactional approach to Taiwan in light of his economic interests.

In contrast, Harris has not clearly defined her military involvement stance should tensions escalate with China over Taiwan. This ambiguity adds complexity to an already delicate situation.

Impact on US Allies and Corporate America

The ramifications of the election extend beyond just China and the US, affecting American allies in East Asia such as South Korea and Japan. Observers in Seoul note a stark contrast between Harris’ low-profile engagement on Korean issues and Trump’s past willingness to negotiate directly with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. This uncertainty provokes significant concern in South Korea regarding the stability of the US nuclear umbrella.

Corporate America, too, braced for the potential fallout, with Trump hailed as the “tariff man” and his proposed tariffs seen as detrimental. Wendy Cutler from the Asia Society warns, “Our trading partners need to prepare for tariff hikes,” should Trump win. The ramifications will likely impact Southeast Asia’s diverse economies heavily reliant on exports.

The Road Ahead: Navigating a Complex Landscape

As Bao Li and Qing Bao prepare to capture the hearts of Americans once again, the pandas symbolize not just cultural diplomacy but also the intricate relationship between the global superpowers. With Trump’s unpredictability and Harris’ likely continuity, the next chapter of US-China relations will require careful navigation—balancing trade interests, global security, and cooperative engagement.

A key takeaway for Southeast Asia and beyond lies in recognizing that both the local and global economies are shifting rapidly. As Malaysia’s Liew advocates, the region has an opportunity to act as a strategic intermediary in the economically pivotal landscape evolving under increased global tensions.

In this multifaceted scenario, the question remains: will the pandas pave the way for renewed dialogue, or serve merely as a backdrop to the unfolding drama in US-China relations?

Engage with us—what are your thoughts on the potential impact of the pandas’ arrival on diplomatic relations between China and the US? Share your insights in the comments below or explore related articles to delve deeper into the intricacies of global diplomacy.

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