The change in presidential candidates has paid off for the Democrats. Trump’s lead is shrinking. But the next few weeks will be tougher for the Vice President.
Vice President Kamala Harris has thrown herself into the election campaign with great momentum.
Edward M. Pio Roda / EPA
President Biden’s dramatic withdrawal from the race for the White House has turned the election campaign in the USA upside down. Two weeks ago, the election was practically over. The Republicans believed they had already secured victory and were ecstatic at their party convention in Milwaukee. The Democrats were deeply depressed. But with the party’s lightning-fast decision to choose Vice President Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate, everything has now changed.
A jolt has gone through not only the party, but the entire electorate. According to a poll published this week, 64 percent of voters said Opinion poll they followed the election campaign closely, a month ago it was less than half. According to another poll, 81 percent of Democratic supporters say Opinion poll They say they are enthusiastically supporting Harris; a month ago, Biden had less than half as many enthusiastic supporters.
Biden’s resignation released pent-up energies
With Biden’s resignation, a dam that had been building up political energy seems to have broken. Harris is able to use this momentum impressively quickly. In the last ten days, she has managed to raise over 310 million dollars in Donate to collect, about twice as much as Trump. According to new national Survey This week, Trump’s lead over Biden has shrunk from 6 percentage points at the beginning of July to just 1 percentage point over Harris. While Trump had previously had a clear lead in 6 swing states, the game between him and Harris is now almost even, with only a slight advantage for Trump.
Next week, Kamala Harris will be officially chosen as the presidential candidate through an online vote. Two weeks later, the National Party Convention in Chicago will ceremoniously support her. Hardly anyone in the party questions the correctness of the decision to choose Harris anymore; the years of doubts about her abilities have evaporated. This is understandable in view of the euphoria. But this election is still far from being won for the Democrats. Four reasons call for caution.
Firstly, Harris’ impressive rise should not obscure the fact that Trump continues to lead in almost all polls. The strengthening of the Democrats’ position has not simultaneously led to a significant weakening of Trump. For example, with 85 percent, he is still able to “inspire” slightly more of his party’s supporters than Harris. Such a close head-to-head race can change at any time. In the election campaign four years ago, Biden was leading in the national polls by up to 10 percentage points and ultimately only won by a relatively narrow margin.
Harris will soon have a harder time
Secondly, Harris is still very early in her campaign. She rightly reaped the “low-hanging fruit” by appealing to the easily mobilized young and non-white voters in her first appearances. She has had great success here. But to win the election, Harris also needs the support of older voters and the white lower and middle classes. Polls here continue to point to Trump being in a strong position. Harris will have a much harder time convincing these voters as well. It is generally expected that her imminent choice of vice president will be guided by such tactical considerations, but this office does not usually decide the race for the White House.
Third, the Republican campaign machine was taken by surprise by the change of candidates by the competition. In the first two weeks, the Republicans did not act very successfully. Instead of focusing on the political positions and achievements of Harris and the Biden administration, they got lost in identity politics trench warfare.
When Trump questions whether Harris is even a black candidate in front of an association of black journalists, he is alienating precisely this electorate that has leaned more toward the Republicans in recent years than ever before. And when his vice presidential candidate J. D. Vance crudely attacks childless women, that does not strengthen the party’s already faltering appeal among female voters.
In the coming weeks, however, the Republican campaign machine is likely to become increasingly better attuned to Harris. There are still many weaknesses and contradictions in her political résumé to be discovered and attacked. The Republicans have already made a start by trying to brand Harris as a woke representative of the left-wing Californian elite. That is probably not equally true for all issues, and Harris is already trying to row towards the political center on sensitive issues such as migration policy. But there are many statements and positions from her political past that repel important national voters.
The difficult legacy of the Biden administration
Fourth, Harris cannot undo the past three and a half years. As Vice President, she was an important part of the Biden administration. If the Republicans succeed in making their weaknesses and failures the focus of the election campaign, there will be many arguments against another Democratic presidency: the high inflation of recent years, uncontrolled immigration at the southern border, what many Americans perceive as unsatisfactory economic development, overregulation, unpopular climate protection measures, and hesitant foreign policy.
American history teaches us that a last-minute change of candidate has never led to a new president. But the last few weeks, with Biden’s debate debacle and the assassination attempt on Trump, are a reminder that a lot of unforeseen things can happen in the three months leading up to the election. Coincidences can have a big impact. The race is open.
