In the midst of the Democratic Party convention in Chicago, which is being held from August 19 to 22, José María Peredo, professor of communication and international relations at the Universidad Europea, stopped by the microphones of the program « Facing the world » d’Onda Madrid to analyze the political situation three months before the American elections, as well as the profiles of the candidates, the electoral campaigns and the importance of foreign policy in the vote.
At the convention, Joe Biden is expected to deliver the inaugural address, followed by Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. The convention will also feature party figures such as former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
José María Peredo, were the Democrats right with Kamala Harris and now with Tim Walz? ?
The results of donations and contributions seem to indicate this. The polls themselves, although there are some contradictions, show a growth in voting intentions in favor of the Democratic ticket.
First, the unknown and doubt about Biden have been dispelled. Second, a formula has been sought, the most legitimate, Kamala Harris. Finally, third, a ticket, in principle broad, has been created to try to capture the entire spectrum of Democratic voters, which is broad, varied and difficult to bring together, but which has been reached in a certain way.
Kamala Harris, an African-American, more progressive, and Tim Walz, a middle-class man from rural areas… The ticket seems to bring together enough elements to attract the Democratic vote.
It’s a very complementary ticket. Historically, it would be fair to say that tickets, in general, have not been that complementary. Some are not complementary at all, with very similar candidate profiles. For example, Clinton and Gold, who had similar profiles, or Reagan and Bush, who were almost identical, represented the same thing.
In this case, Kamala fits into this progressive profile, but she comes from the Biden administration, which has been a moderate, moderate and liberal government. That’s where she can capture the centrist vote. However, Walz’s profile is, first of all, Anglo-Saxon, from the Midwest, an experienced politician who is looking for another profile, in the style of Bernie Sanders, perhaps, to identify him, that slightly left-wing voter who is engaged in social issues, but who, indeed, is able to attract the more progressive vote, not the radicalized vote, which, let’s say, is more complex, but that vote, let’s say, of Bernie Sanders.
United States. I am not going to get into the Trump and Kamala debate on Biden, on what the real situation is, but obviously much more promising. The voter of eight years ago is perhaps no longer the same in these regions, and perhaps the Walz effect can have some capacity to recover this vote that was lost and that went towards Donald Trump’s populism.
It is possible, and we have to look at some of the polls, that this Trumpism has won over these voters and that the change in vote does not happen. I have already committed to a vision of agreement, more Americanist, focused on the problems of the popular, working and middle classes, and that is represented by Donald Trump, and I am not going to be fooled, it may be that this happens in the thinking of these voters and these regions.
Is Trump as out of touch as he appears or as some media outlets indicate?
Trump is destabilized, first because everything was planned for a repeat of the Biden-Trump election, first because, secondly, he suffered the attack and, thirdly, he obviously has to get the campaign back on track. But the campaign has already reacted, for example, to this assessment of the crisis, this Kamala Crash with which he identified this fall of the stock market, which occurs in many Augusts; I am not at all a stock market specialist, but simple observation of the different years shows that the months of August are very sensitive to stock market movements and in general to certain falls, which the former president immediately identified as the Kamala Crash.
That is, Trump has the ability to reorient the campaign, to react, to remake the campaign, and instead of Biden being the target, it is Kamala. Yes, he is destabilized, especially by himself. Trump is aware that what the Republican Party wants and needs is not the Trump of 2016, but a much more inclusive president with a longer vision.
news about a possible recession in the United States, but immediately after, he moved on to personal issues. We saw Donald Trump, whether she is black, whether she is progressive, whether Walz is a radical leftist, the attacks of Vance, the vice-presidential candidate by the Republicans with Trump, the personal attacks, here we complain that things are unfortunately as they are, in the United States it is to be very bitter.
In the campaign with Hillary Clinton, he showed no mercy with the candidate, he took everything that was necessary from Hillary Clinton’s public and private life, and Kamala Harris must be prepared for that, because Trump is a master at it. I would have liked him to campaign like Barack Obama, or like many other political leaders. You can criticize, you can mock, you can take advantage of any situation, but it is not a personal and identity issue.
The question of identity, in this case, moreover, is particularly sensitive and political; it is not a question of making a gesture on ethnic origin, in the manner, for example, of Obama, who said that he was not even American, that it is a question here of identifying, that is to say of winning the vote of these minorities, the identities that have been reinforced in the United States in many places, some were already there, but others were not and have appeared, the nativist or Americanist identity has been reinforced, and therefore the question of identity is naturally present, it gives votes, etc., in addition to immigration, of course.
To make the connection with what is happening in the world, what influence can foreign policy have? Here, perhaps Joe Biden can give Kamala Harris a helping hand, by making decisions that, if they go well, allow her to score a point, if they go badly, Kamala can distance herself because it was Biden who made them. I am thinking, for example, of Venezuela, of this electoral fraud that everyone knows about, but the days go by and the Chavistas are still there. Or of Israel, where the United States managed to get the Israeli government to accept mediation with Egypt, Qatar and Hamas to try to negotiate the liberation of the kingdoms.
Foreign policy is more present than at other times, because there are two open conflicts, two open wars.s.
And Ukraine, of course, of course.
Ukraine will be there and Hamas will be there. Walz himself has already referred to this issue in his candidacy. And Venezuela, of course, will be there. All the rivals, all the interests that oppose the United States in one way or another, I don’t want to use the word enemy because it’s not there. In other words, the rivalries that he may have with the United States, and naturally the extremist, radicalized groups, enemies of the United States, who represent democracy and so on, are not going to help him at all, not only Kamala Harris, but also President Biden; they are trying, of course, to destabilize democracy.
And destabilizing democracy means maintaining an open conflict in the election campaign that gives the impression that the United States is involved in some way, that it is mismanaging the situation and causing all kinds of uncertainties.
United States Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House lawn in Washington, DC, USA, July 25, 2024 – REUTERS/NATHAN HOWARD
For now, the Biden administration has increased its naval deployment in the Middle East. We are all waiting for Iran’s response, which has been announced as threatening and apocalyptic towards Israel. They will try to do something coordinated with their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc. And then the United States will show itself determined to intervene and prevent it.
Whether or not it will happen depends on their ability, but they will probably try, of course. These events depend on how they unfold. It may have an effect on the campaign, in the sense that it is said that President Biden’s action and performance were good; therefore Harris is somehow the continuation, or, on the other hand, the action should have been better, should have been different, and then Trump has to replace him. It is clear that foreign policy is going to take sides in this election campaign.
