TAKEOVER: Taliban fighters patrol the streets of Herat, Afghanistan. Now they can approach Kabul, according to experts. Foto: STRINGER / X80002
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The Taliban have captured the important city of Mazar-e-Sharif. What is happening now with the capital Kabul?
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It was Saturday that the Taliban captured the northern Afghan city, almost without opposition from government forces.
– I had expected Mazar to be taken, but it went faster than I had thought, says Afghanistan expert Arne Strand at Christian Michelsen’s Institute.
Now that Mazar has been conquered, the Taliban control all of northern Afghanistan, Strand explains.
– Kabul is circled in, he says.
See which provinces in Afghanistan the Taliban have now taken control of:
Only one way out
The Taliban also controls the areas around Kabul, which means that in practice there is only one way out of the city: the airport.
– The mood in Kabul has changed completely in a few days: From being calm and confident to panic and a rush to get out as soon as possible, says Ditte Søbro in MSF to NTB.
– Thursday morning they were relatively confident. But only from Thursday to Friday night did a lot happen. On Thursday, they thought it would be at least 90 days before Kabul was taken, she says, and emphasizes that she speaks as a private person.
—-TAKEN CONTROL: The Taliban gather after taking control of Lashkar Gah, the provisional capital of Helmand in Afghanistan. Photo: STRINGER / EPA
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Can come to battle in the capital
But where Mazar and several other provincial capitals have fallen virtually without a fight, the expert Strand points out that the situation is not comparable for Kabul.
– I think it will take a lot for Kabul to be taken militarily. All government forces, including special forces, are there. In addition, there are international forces there.
—-KABUL NOT IN DANGER: Researcher Arne Strand at Chr. Michelsen’s Institute believes that a lot will be needed before Kabul is taken militarily. Here from a previous VG interview in Kabul. Photo: Harald Henden
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Strand’s colleague Torunn Wimpelmann, on the other hand, believes that it is only a matter of time before the Taliban take over Kabul.
Another Afghanistan expert, Kristian Berg Harpviken at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), is also unsure whether Kabul can survive.
– Although many of the most loyal forces are in Kabul, it is not certain that all the security forces are willing to sacrifice their lives for the government, especially when the Taliban control virtually the rest of the country.
Changed negotiating position
An alternative to fighting in Kabul is that an agreement be negotiated between the Taliban and the government. On Saturday, President Ashraf Ghani said in a televised speech to the public that talks are underway locally and internationally to end the violence.
But the president himself stands in the way of a ceasefire, says Torunn Wimpelmann.
– The most optimistic scenario is that there will be a transitional government and that the president will leave which could lead to a ceasefire. But the president has not said he is willing to do this so far, and even then it is not certain that there will be a ceasefire.
—-POSITION THREATENED: Kristian Berg Harpviken says that the position of Afghanistan’s president has deteriorated with the advance. Photo: Gorm Kallestad / Scanpix
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Harpviken at PRIO says that the position of the president has become much worse with the Taliban’s advance.
– The negotiating cards for the Taliban are insanely much stronger than if we only go back two weeks in time.
The Taliban will use those negotiation cards, says Harpviken.
– I do not see any realistic scenarios where the Taliban do not have a very heavy influence on the management of Afghanistan, at least in the short term.
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