“If an army general is mature enough in the middle of a battle to refine his strategy to ensure mission success, then the government should do the same.” Conservative backbencher Tobias Ellwood recently tried his party in an article for the parliamentary magazine The House to make a 180 degree turn. Former army man Ellwood argued that the UK should rejoin the EU single market; this is the only way to solve the country’s economic problems.
June 23 marks the sixth anniversary of the British referendum in which a majority voted to leave the European Union. After several delays, the UK finally withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020. Since January 1, 2021, it is no longer part of the EU single market and customs union. British exports to the EU have since declined significantly, with British agriculture and fisheries in particular suffering from this development. In addition, there is still a dispute with the EU about the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol. Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently announced that he wants to unilaterally amend parts of the agreement on the status of the internal border of Ireland – the main land border between the UK and the EU.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently announced that he would like to unilaterally change parts of the agreement on the status of the internal border of Ireland.
Ellwood’s proposal met with fierce backlash from his party, which still counts leaving the EU as one of its core brands. But the Tories are uneasy at grassroots level and the party leadership has less support than ever. On June 6, Johnson narrowly escaped a no-confidence vote by his House of Commons faction, by a vote of 211 to 148. Even Theresa May, his predecessor in office and as party leader, was voted in favor of by a larger percentage of MPs in her own party before she resigned.
Johnson’s easy-going demeanor and jovial leadership style have had little public appeal since the scandal surrounding parties that violated his own government’s pandemic protection regulations (Jungle World 19/2022). In addition, Great Britain is also suffering from a high inflation rate (in April it was nine percent compared to the same month last year) and heating costs have risen enormously for most Britons since the beginning of the year, which is causing resentment to continue to grow.
The discussion about leaving the EU continues to dominate the political debate. Economists are still struggling to assess the exact economic impact of the exit. The pessimistic short-term forecasts made by many banks after the referendum in 2016 were initially not fulfilled. However, the medium and long-term consequences of the exit are more difficult to assess. The Covid-19 pandemic makes it difficult to assess just how badly it has damaged the UK economy. However, recent studies at least suggest that the UK is lagging badly in the recovery that has started in other countries after most of the pandemic measures ended.
Opinions in British society differ on the exit and the question of the country’s relationship with the EU. In the referendum, only a narrow majority of 51.9 percent voted in favor of leaving the EU. According to surveys, a certain skepticism about this decision has now set in. 49 percent of Britons now say leaving the EU was wrong; only 37 percent consider it the right decision.
Still, it is highly unlikely that Britain will seek membership of the EU or the EU’s single market again. This is also due to the opposition: Labor not only seems to be reconciled with the exit, it is also being emphasized more and more often how important the decision was for the country. Labor leader Keir Starmer had already asserted in February: “We have left the EU and we are not returning. There are no reasons to rejoin.’ Labour’s slogan is now ‘Make Brexit Work’. The party accuses the Tories of not being able to keep their bold promises about the country’s future after Brexit and that the government has not planned far enough ahead. Labor can guarantee a better relationship with the EU while delivering on more of the Tories’ exit pledges.
Among other things, the Conservative Party had promised before the referendum that the British financial sector would benefit from an exit because restrictive EU regulations could be got rid of. In the words of the conservative magazine Spectator, London was to be transformed into “Singapore on the Thames”. Little has been seen of that in recent years. Labor has now, at least in part, hijacked that idea. Shadow Economy Minister Tulip Siddiq recently outlined how reforming some “too restrictive” regulations could help the UK economy get back on its feet. Another promise made by Johnson was a VAT exemption for energy, which the Tories claimed would not have been possible in the EU. That promise has now been dropped by Johnson due to a lack of budget funds. Another found fodder for the Labor Party, which is urging the government to implement this ‘Brexit Bonus’.
Labor’s strategy seems surprising given the growing skepticism of the British public towards Brexit. Above all, however, Starmer is concerned with winning back former Labor voters. In 2019 the party had lost many votes in its former northern England strongholds. Many constituencies won by Labor for decades fell to the Tories for the first time. In the comparatively poor north, the majority of voters voted to leave in 2016. In Starmer’s eyes, Labor under his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn had lost sight of these groups of voters, which he characterized as social conservatives. That is why Labor is now presenting itself as the “true party of British patriotism”. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will work. Johnson certainly seems to have lost the confidence of many voters – he was booed at Queen Elizabeth II’s jubilee this year.
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