Who benefits from early voting?
Slavi Trifonov is being persuaded to overthrow the parliament, but the goal is not to become the first political force, but to stop the work of the administration
There may be a real “anti-Boyko” government in this parliament as well, so there is something else behind the calls for new elections.
Who but Boyko Borissov wants and can be prime minister? By 8 pm on Tuesday – 48 hours after it was found out that 837,671 Bulgarians voted for GERB and for the party “There is such a people”, which is second, the votes cast are 564,989, none of the 6 political parliamentary forces has announced the name of a possible next prime minister.
For Toshko Yordanov, the second in Slavi Trifonov’s party, there are two moves, if his first words are read on Sunday. “There is such a people” can form a governing coalition only with “Democratic Bulgaria” and Maya Manolova. This brings 95 MP votes with the required 121. Or if it does not happen, it goes to early elections.
Slavi himself has not given any sign or comment since Sunday night, when he announced that he had “symptoms of COVID” and isolated himself. There is no evidence from any medical institution in Sofia to be his patient.
The only one who speaks directly about the need to go to the polls again is Hristo Ivanov. The leader of “Yes, Bulgaria” formulated last night in front of bTV a wish that the next vote would not be organized by the government of Boyko Borissov. Probably the analysts advise Ivanov that this is a way for DB to get more votes.
“I am very skeptical that parliament can form a government. If I have to make a prediction, it is that the scenario will happen for us to go to the next elections, but we should not be afraid of that. This is how democracy works. This parliament could embody the desire of the people to vote against Borissov and will be successful if it can hold elections that are not organized by Borissov, “he said in a TV interview.
The DB was ready to be in opposition, but would also support a government with a “There is such a people” mandate. “If Slavi takes a mandate and proposes some construction, we will treat it with respect, but I am skeptical that it could happen,” added the leader of “Yes, Bulgaria”.
As can be seen, “Democratic Bulgaria” respects Slavi, but does not believe in the success of his attempt to enter the executive branch.
Although both Slavi Trifonov and Hristo Ivanov are adamant that they will not participate in a governing coalition with Cornelia Ninova, she made the first attempt on Tuesday to offer a common position against the concession at Sofia Airport. Ivanov delicately deviated. Probably one of the reasons is that if this happens, the United States will not be happy that Meridian, a company linked to the current presidential administration (the current US secretary of state was in charge of this investment fund before joining the administration), will be shot down. from such an important deal. Democratic Bulgaria probably did not want a head-on collision with international investors even before its 23 deputies entered the National Assembly. (See page 3)
The situation of the BSP is also difficult and delicate in this parliamentary format. Cornelia Ninova has not yet publicly and personally announced whether the Socialists support Rumen Radev for a second term. And won’t it turn out that the president likes and as long as Slavi Trifonov, Maya and “Democratic Bulgaria” are behind him and
to give up
red shoulder
Then the BSP can demand early elections with the expectation of better explaining to its electorate what is happening in the party. Although the party coffers will find it difficult to withstand a repeat campaign.
Maya Manolova also refrained from commenting on early elections.
In the first hours after the vote, the results of which no participant in them – parties and voters – are satisfied, GERB warned how much a new early one will cost. According to Lyuben Dilov-son, the amount is BGN 108 million
Who benefits from early elections? Their goal will not be so much to win Slavi or the city right, but simply
to extend
the period of
powerlessness
in order to fail the technical details surrounding the introduction of the euro. The political negotiations for our accession to the euro area are over, but our entry into the so-called waiting room of the euro presupposes a large-scale technical process, which may prove to be more important than the invitation itself. The introduction of the euro is scheduled to take place in 2024, but has not been specified and will depend on these technical arrangements while we are in the waiting room. If the goal of the five players – Slavi, BSP, MRF, DB and “Mutri, out”, is to elect a strong anti-Borisov cabinet after new elections, then this can happen in this National Assembly as well.
Then what will be the result after a rigged vote? The earliest elections may take place at the end of July – beginning of August, provided that the parliament dissolves itself on May 1, and the deadlines stipulated by the constitution are not awaited. The administration will stop for months, when some ministers leave, the officials come for a short time and the next management team is expected. There is a delay and uncertainty. And any government will not allow itself to stand against the national goal – entry into the eurozone.
Political scientists:
which will melt
percent
In a new vote, the BSP may have even lower percentages due to its current condition, GERB is also threatened by reduced support, and it is uncertain whether “Stand up! Get out! ” will jump the barrier, said political scientist Boris Popivanov. According to him, an increase in the vote for “There is such a people” is just a hypothesis, but it will depend on whether the other political forces will broadcast helplessness.
According to political scientist Rumyana Kolarova, the protest parties will suffer damage in a new vote.
Some local players and regional factors are more interested in long-term political instability than the great powers Russia, the United States and the EU.
At first reading, President Rumen Radev is most interested in new elections. His dream of ordering an official cabinet and the threat to revise and prosecute Boyko Borissov and his ministers will come true. But he is already in the last meters of his first term and the preparation to fight for a second. Inevitably expensive elections and putting the state on a pause in the midst of an unprecedented health and economic crisis will hardly have a good effect on the people. And then he will see the culprit in the face of the head of state. Who has already once sent him to the polls at the height of the contagion to show Borisov once again who drives the plane.
In addition, Radev’s only successful strategy so far is to point the finger at the GERB leader.
Left without
enemy,
it will be difficult to build a new trump card for your campaign. He will get the most desired – to order an office, but he will lose the most valuable – to identify himself through the image of the “bad Borisov”.
On the second suspect in the interest of new elections Slavi Trifonov, certain sociologists immediately began to impose that he should raise the wave of discontent even more with a quick vote and win. But so far it seems that “there is such a people” is not very aware of what to do in the position of a second political force. Rather, the feeling is of surprise, stress. Far more comfortable was their assigned position of a third force that would dictate in the shadows. Without participating in the formation of a cabinet, without giving ministers.
He must now take personal responsibility. And this is exactly the trap – if Slavi refuses to try for a cabinet, then he betrays the trust of the people and runs away from this responsibility. And it throws the country into the chaos of a new campaign that will drain the budget, unleash the pandemic, make people even poorer.
Soberly, if the president, Trifonov or the protesters from the square throw the country into new elections, we will move away from the euro and the EU’s reconstruction funds,
GERB will be the unexpected winner
It is very likely that the voter will then demand stability again, prefer the familiar to the new upheavals, and Borissov’s party will win a much more convincing re-vote.
According to analyst Yulian Popov, the new elections will be destructive and could bring the Ataka and Valeri Simeonov nationalists back into parliament.
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