Therefore, the likelihood that Netanyahu will soon annex a large section of the West Bank seems rather small. There are still too many folds to smooth out, including between Jerusalem and Washington, and dots to finish. But he can’t wait very long either: maybe Donald Trump will be voted out in November, and he has lost the back support from Washington. It therefore seems more likely that the Prime Minister will indeed attempt to annex, but on a limited scale.
For example, he could attach large urban settlements like Ariel or Maale Adumim, as a start and a test, to see what the reaction will be from the Palestinian, Arab and international sides. This allows him to prove to his supporters that he is serious about annexation, without taking too many risks. Even then it remains to be seen whether his coalition partner Blauw Wit of Benny Gantz will follow suit. Although Gantz has given Netanyahu leeway, the coalition’s cohesion remains fragile.
For the Palestinians, an annexation of Maale Adumim or Ariel would primarily be a symbolic slap in the face, a signal that – whatever they may argue or combat – the strongest in the field will eventually make sense. In this respect, Trump’s “peace plan” resembles the imposed peace of a victorious power after an armed conflict: the losing party must swallow the terms.
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