Important highlights of US equities:
The market will focus on the September CPI and unemployment benefit data. Several banks have published financial reports. 10-Year Treasury Yieldit reached 3.892%. US stock futures rose on Thursday (13)Dow JonesFutures rose 0.77%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.77%.Nasdaq 100 futures were up by 0.47%.
The minutes of the September 20-21 meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) released on Wednesday (13) show that in order to bring inflation back to the 2% target, it will raise interest rates to a restrictive level and keep it in the For some time. however, several officials said it was important to adjust the pace of rate hikes to reduce the risks to the economic outlook.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said Wednesday (12) that the Fed’s next move depends on the trend in inflation. If there are no signs of a decline, it should continue to hold the possibility of drastically increasing interest rates, but If inflation begins to cool, it would make sense to slow down the pace of rate hikes.
The United States will announce the latest consumer price index (CPI) ahead of the US stock market opening on Thursday the 13th. After the 8.3% annual increase in August, the market expects the annual growth rate of the ‘CPI will hit 8.1% in September and the main CPI is expected to hit a 40-year high again.
Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to hit 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% next year, according to a dot chart released last month.
Real estate billionaire and former Starwood Group CEO Barry Sternlicht has warned that aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and crackdown on inflation are “drying up” US equities as the economy and liquidity begin to shrink, even in the “healthy” ones. .
His warning echoes that of other experts predicting a steep sell-off in the shares as the Fed tightens fast. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned that the stock market could drop another 20%, while “Dr. Doom” economist Nouriel Roubini predicted that US stocks could drop 40%.
US stocks rose and fell on the previous trading day:
Today’s important general economic data:
- US core CPI annual growth rate (%) in September, estimated at 6.5, the previous value was 6.3
- US September CPI annual growth rate (%), estimated at 8.1, the previous value was 8.3
- The number of Americans who received unemployment benefits last week (10,000 people) was estimated at 22.5, the previous value was 21.9
Important Inventory Developments:
1. Materials applied (AMAT-USA)
Applied Material on Wednesday (12) cut its fourth-quarter (this quarter) revenue forecast by about $ 400 million and warned that revenue in the first quarter of the new year could be similarly affected as the new wave of measures US China’s export control will affect the entire semiconductor industry and affect Yingmao’s performance in China.
Applied Materials now has a median forecast for fiscal fourth quarter 2022 (ending October 30) of approximately $ 6.4 billion (plus or minus $ 250 million), compared to the previous median forecast of $ 6.65 billion (plus or minus $ 250 million). minus 400 million) versus the US dollar), the downward revision ranged from $ 250 million to $ 550 million (median $ 400 million) and was less than the $ 6.67 billion forecast by analysts interviewed by Refinitiv.
2. Ashmore (ASML-USA)
As the US-China tech war flares up, Ashmore, a major manufacturer of advanced semiconductor equipment, has ordered US employees to follow the latest Biden administration regulations and stop serving Chinese customers.
According to an internal email, ASML has asked its employees in the United States to refrain from serving, shipping or otherwise supporting, directly or indirectly, Chinese customers, and the company is still actively evaluating which specific establishments might be affected. by the new regulations.
The above order applies to all US employees of ASML, including US citizens, green card holders, and individuals residing overseas.
3. Microsoft (MSFT-USA)
Credit Suisse on Wednesday (12) downgraded its share of Microsoft (MSFT-USA), citing the high inventory levels and economic uncertainty that are leading personal computers (PCs) to face the worst contraction in the last 20 years.
Credit Suisse said in an analysis report: “IDC and Gartner released PC shipments data for the third quarter of 2022, showing a historic slowdown in the PC market. Gartner (wholesale) and IDC (shipping). Shipping volume decreased by 19.5% and 15.0% yoy, respectively, and the volume of shipments in the second quarter decreased by 12.6% and 15.3% yoy respectively. In the third quarter in 2021, it increased by 1.0% and 3.9% on an annual basis. respectively of the year “.
