Last year, the plane that was to transport Ohtani to Toronto caused a lot of talk. The problem being that Ohtani never set foot on the plane and had no intention of signing a deal with the Blue Jays. The hope of seeing this phenomenon arrive in Toronto was palpable among the supporters. The duo of Guerrero Jr and Ohtani would propel the Jays into first place!
Jays management did not deny their intention to get their hands on the famous Japanese player. There was even talk of a special budget from the owner who was ready to play in the $700M range. And then, quite simply, Ohtani signed with the Dodgers and from then on, we felt this harsh disappointment in Toronto. So much so that we have the impression that the management and the players have never recovered. The Dodgers won the World Series while the Jays…
Obviously, there have been several reasons behind the Jays’ miserable season and not just because they failed to land Ohtani. Baseball management misevaluated its bullpen staff with the loss of Jordan Romano, we also seem to have overestimated the ability to produce on offense in addition to having pushed Vladimir Guerrero Jr to end up in arbitration.
But that’s all in the past. You have to look carefully ahead and above all, try not to repeat the same mistakes. I really had the impression that the organization was going to make a change in baseball direction, but you have to believe that Mark Shapiro has total control and that for him, Ross Atkins is still the man for the job.
What will the Jays need to do to be more competitive in 2025? Let’s start by evaluating the existing staff. For now, here is the possible offensive role:
1. George Springer CD
2. Daulton Varsho CC
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr 1B
4. Spencer Horwitz DH
5. Bo Bichette AC
6. Alejandro Kirk R
7. Will Wagner 2B
8. Ernie Clement 3B
9. Nathan Lukes CG
Besides Springer who is 35 years old, it is a young team. But can they compete offensively with the teams in their division with such a lineup? The answer is no. Would adding a Juan Soto help? The answer is yes, obviously. But at what cost? And I’m not talking about the amount here, but about the reputation. Can the Jays afford to be the team that ups the ante again, only to come up empty-handed once again? Why yet another special budget for Soto, when with this same budget, Toronto could add three quality players?Juan Soto
With Soto in the lineup:
1. George Springer CG
2. Juan Soto CD
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr 1B
4. Spencer Horwitz DH
5. Bo Bichette AC
6. Daulton Varsho CC
7. Alejandro Kirk R
8. Will Wagner 2B
9. Ernie Clement 3B
Much better, but is it enough?
Remember that Toronto is considered a “big” market and landlords can afford it. Despite everything, playing in Canada is not an advantage in attracting the greats of the sport, but the Jays can still attract excellent players. Signing Vlad Guerrero to a contract would be the first thing management should accomplish. It would show the seriousness of it and yes, it would attract players to Toronto. After trying to give Ohtani everything last year, the team found itself signing Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner to contracts. We haven’t gotten over it yet! So if the Jays decide to spend, instead of giving everything to Soto, they could afford to sign three free agents. Let’s look at some possibilities together.
The situation in the infield
With Springer and Varsho in the outfield, it is in the infield that the Jays could add quality players and completely change the offensive role.
I think Horwitz is a major league hitter and could help the Jays over a full season. The Jays could visit a player like Christian Walker. Guerrero, Horwitz and Walker rotate 1st base, 3rd base and go-to hitter.
The Jays signed Willy Adames to play shortstop. We push Bichette to 2nd base. Adames can also play 3rd base. There are multiple options in defense, but the attack is much more complete.
Suddenly the training looks like this:
1. George Springer CD
2. Daulton Varsho CC
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr 1B/3B/DH
4. Willy Adames AC/3B
5. Spencer Horwitz DH/1B
6. Christian Walker 1B/DH
7. Bo Bichette 2B/AC
8. Alejandro Kirk R
9. Nathan Lukes CG
Adames is going to be expensive, but he’s only 29 and his leadership is a huge plus in my opinion. Walker is 34 years old, so a two- or three-year deal wouldn’t be too hefty.
Alex Bregman is another interesting player, but I don’t see him with the Jays. The price would be too high. His injury history does not show anything reassuring. But Bregman can play shortstop too, and that would certainly please Springer.
Ha-Seong Kim is another shortstop who could be considered. He excels on defense and with the Jays starting pitching staff he would help considerably. However, it offers less “punch” in attack. But the price might be good.
Among the outfielders, there are some important players on the free agent market, including Soto, Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. If the Jays pursued just one free agent, Hernandez and Santander would be seriously considered. One player I would be very interested in if I were the decision maker is Jurickson Profar. Ambidextrous hitter, can play multiple positions and he’s only 32 years old. He has just had a good season with the Padres (24 cc and 85 PP).
Tyler O’Neill and Michael Conforto are two other players who could interest the Jays without spending a lot of money.
In summary, do I give Soto $47M per year for 13 years or do I offer these players the following contracts:
Adames: $24M per year for 5 years
Walker: $22M per year for 2 years
Profar: $16M per year for 3 years
And I present myself with this training in 2025:
1. George Springer CD
2. Jurickson Profar CG
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr 1B/3B/DH
4. Willy Adames AC/3B
5. Spencer Horwitz DH/1B
6. Christian Walker 1B/DH
7. Bo Bichette 2B/AC
8. Daulton Varsho CC
9. Alejandro Kirk R
The starting situation is still good with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez. Alek Manoah will only be back mid-season if all goes well and young Ricky Tiedemann will miss the entire 2025 season, recovering from Tommy John surgery. Jake Bloss, acquired in last year’s Yusei Kikuchi trade with the Astros, is now the organization’s number one prospect. It will be interesting to follow his performance at the AAA level. The Jays could always sign a pitcher or two on the free agent market, but they don’t have to spend a fortune to add depth.
Jordan Romano
In relief, it can’t be worse than in 2024. They finished 29th in earned run average at 4.82, 29th in strikeouts with 502 and that’s the bullpen staff who allowed the most home runs with 92. Jordan Romano will be back, which will put Chad Green and Eric Swanson back in their roles where they will be more effective. Obviously, this is where the Jays will have to be creative and find arms to support the late-game trio and starters. There are 82 relievers on the free agent market. If the Jays decide to sign Tanner Scott for 4 years at $16M per year, they will definitely be better, but they will have to sacrifice a Profar for example. One thing is certain, it is in this position that Ross Atkins will demonstrate if he is capable of putting the Jays back on track.
Among the reserves, several interesting options. First, the Jays should sign Danny Jansen. It wouldn’t cost very much and he knows the organization. It takes a receiver to support Kirk. Will Wagner, Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes all make contributions that help the team.
For the moment, the team’s payroll is at 122M, but we must anticipate players in arbitration and increases so if nothing changes, it would be around $180M. Last year, the Jays made $218M despite their 74-88 record. Money is there to spend. Will they do it? And above all, will they do it intelligently?
The base is still solid for the Jays. The next few months may represent Ross Atkins’ last chance. One thing is certain, to compete with the other teams in the eastern division, the current roster as of today is no match. To be continued in the coming weeks!
