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The trade war between the UK and the EU could be getting closer after the Government of Boris Johnson has confirmed its intentions to present this Monday in the House of Commons the bill with which it wants to change, unilaterally, the so-called Protocol for Northern Ireland, a key piece of the Brexit agreement.
After the historic divorce, the British province was left with a different status from the rest of the United Kingdom in order to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, an essential requirement to seal peace between Catholics and Protestants in 1998. But that now requires customs controls on goods exchanged with the United Kingdom. According to the London version, the new bureaucratic burden is not only causing product shortages but also creating political tensions.
After the historic victory of the Catholics of Sinn Fein in the last autonomous elections in May, the protestants of the DUP now refuse to form a coalition government that both communities must respect by the 1998 peace agreement. The unionists feel betrayed by the Central Executive for having left Northern Ireland more aligned with the Dublin regulations than with London and they are not willing to unblock the political crisis until the new customs controls are changed.
And in this sense, the Johnson Executive justifies that, in case of acting unilaterally, they would not be breaching international Brexit law, but rather protecting peace in Ulster.
This is the argument offered by the state attorney general, Suella Braverman, who is a member of the Cabinet and whose role is to provide legal advice to the Government. However, despite the seriousness of the situation, the ministers did not consult the so-called “First Council of the Treasury”, the independent lawyer of the Executive who is approached with important legal challenges, as is the case, since it could reach a trade war with the EU. According to the British press, this figure indicated that “it would be very difficult for the United Kingdom to argue that it is not violating international law if it goes ahead with some of the movements that are being considered.” The controversy, therefore, is more than served.
As if that were not enough, the processing of the bill in Westminster is going to be extremely complicated since the most Eurosceptic Conservatives have already warned that they will not support it if they consider it to be too soft and, for their part, the Lords have already advanced that They will take it down if they consider that it violates international law.
Therefore, one way or another, Johnson could be humiliated, further increasing doubts about a leadership that was already deeply touched last week with the confidence vote.
maximum tension
The Foreign Minister, Liz Trusswhich is the one in charge of the new negotiations with Brussels, wanted to toughen the law as much as possible in order to satisfy the brexiteers and position themselves in the event of possible primaries. But that sparked a fierce dispute in the Cabinet itself, with Johnson arguing that it would heighten tensions with Brussels and make a negotiated deal with the EU impossible.
The Leader of the Labor Opposition, Keir Starmer, noted that with “good faith, statecraft and confidence at the negotiating table”, the UK and the EU should be able to make technical changes to remove trade frictions caused by the protocol. But he said Johnson did not possess the skills to negotiate a deal and accused him of taking “a wrecking ball” in relations between the United Kingdom and Ireland, which are at a height of tension.
The demands that London now poses to Brussels are not few. On the one hand, you want two types of brokers. A green one, exempt from controls, for goods from Great Britain that remain in Northern Irish territory and do not cross into the Republic of Ireland (EU territory). And a red one for the rest of shipments.
Likewise, he wants the quality standards imposed in Northern Ireland to be British, and not those of the EU. And he wants more tax flexibility, so that any VAT changes he applies to Britain will also apply to Northern Ireland. That would fully affect the “faithful level-plating”, issues of competition and regulatory convergence.
Finally, it demands that the Court of Justice of the EU not be the supervisory body for the rules of the community market in Northern Ireland, but that an arbitration mechanism similar to the one established in the Commercial and Cooperation Treaty that they signed be applied. London and Brussels to avoid a hard Brexit.
The changes would imply that both parties act in good faith, that is, the EU would have to take London’s word for products that are not supposed to enter the Republic of Ireland, that is, the single market. Y Johnson’s resume isn’t exactly reassuring.
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