The race in the Democratic Party to choose a White House candidate was again open on Tuesday night, after a first phase in which progressive Bernie Sanders appeared to be well on his way to nomination and centrist Joe Biden appeared to be doomed. to give up.
With polling stations still open until 4:00 am (time in mainland Portugal) in California (the state with the most delegates at stake, 415), former United States vice president Joe Biden stepped forward with a series of victories and others good results in “Super tuesday”, in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
What is at stake in the primary elections is the number of delegates assigned to each candidate. The first to win 1991 delegates (50% of the total, plus one) is considered the party’s virtual nominee.
The entry for this “super Tuesday” had only been assigned 155 delegates in four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina). Tonight, 1357 delegates are at stake in 14 states and the territory of American Samoa – more than a third of the total.
In the race are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, multimillionaire Michael Bloomberg and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, from Hawaii, also appears in the newsletters, but polls give her only 1% of the votes nationwide.
Although the dynamics of the electoral campaign in the Democratic Party may change significantly, at the moment the struggle seems to be limited to Bernie Sanders (as the representative of the left-most wing) and Joe Biden (who begins to gather the votes of the centrists) ).
One explanation for Biden’s good results tonight is the withdrawal of two other candidates from the center in recent days. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar they left the race and declared their support for Joe Biden – and in polls at the polls in Virginia and North Carolina, more than half of voters said they had decided to vote in the past few days.
But most likely, none of the candidates will make it to the magic number (1991 delegates) by the end of the primaries – a consequence of there being still four competitive candidates dividing the delegates among themselves.
As soon as polling stations began to close in the east coast states of the United States, at 7 pm local time (0h this Wednesday in mainland Portugal), some results were immediately advanced. It was a sign that one of the candidates had won with a comfortable advantage.
In Virginia (99 delegates), Joe Biden confirmed the victory that the polls pointed to, but the fact that the result was advanced as soon as the polling stations were closed was a good sign for the former vice president of the United States. In the end, Biden had more than 53% of the vote, which will give him the majority of the 99 delegates at stake – at least 60, with Sanders receiving two dozen.
Also as expected, the Vermont senator won overwhelmingly in his state, with more than 50% of the vote. But with only 16 delegates at stake in Vermont and Biden in 2nd place, Sanders’ advantage will not be very significant.
In addition to the fact that the delegates are distributed proportionately among the candidates (unlike many votes in the Republican Party primaries, where the winner gets all the delegates), for a candidate to win delegates he must receive at least 15% of votes – a system that can be decisive for a successful night for Joe Biden and for the decision on the nominee to drag on to the party’s national convention in July.
In Texas, which is the second state with the most delegates on this “super Tuesday” (228, after California, with 415), Bernie Sanders was ahead, but Joe Biden was not far away. And, equally important for Biden’s campaign, both Bloomberg and Warren were over 15%. If that is the end result, Warren and Bloomberg will win delegates and prevent Sanders’ victory from translating into a bigger difference in delegates from Biden.
In the most important state of the night, California, Sanders is practically guaranteed to win, but the remaining three candidates were also expected to stay above 15%. Again, if that happens, Joe Biden will benefit the most, as Sanders’ advantage will not be as significant.
Another curiosity of this “super Tuesday” is the future of Elizabeth Warren, who was in danger of finishing third in her state, Massachusetts. Warren has a tough decision ahead of him: he will have trouble explaining how he can be named if he is the third option in his own state, but he can also argue that he has won enough delegates in other states to stay in the race.
The multimillionaire Michael Bloomberg fell short of what promised the fortune he spent in the voting states tonight. Even though it ends “super Tuesday” with enough delegates to stay in the race, it is also true that it fell far below Joe Biden in the southern states, clearly losing the fight for the African American electorate.
Results at 3am (final results at bold)
Alabama: Biden (62.6%), Sanders (16%), Bloomberg (12.7%), Warren (5.3%)
Arkansas: Biden (29%), Sanders (21.8%), Bloomberg (20%), Warren (10.8%)
Colorado: Sanders (36.2%), Bloomberg (24%), Biden (20.3%), Warren (16.7%)
Maine: Biden (34.2%), Sanders (34.1%), Warren (15.2%), Bloomberg (12.1%)
Massachusetts: Biden (33.9%), Sanders (28.1%), Warren (20.2%), Bloomberg (11.3%)
Minnesota: Biden (35.8%), Sanders (32.3%), Warren (17.9%), Bloomberg (7.6%)
North Caroline: Biden (36.1%), Sanders (23.1%), Bloomberg (16%), Warren (10.6%)
Oklahoma: Biden (37.4%), Sanders (24.3%), Bloomberg (14.7%), Warren (13%)
Tennessee: Biden (36%), Sanders (24.5%), Bloomberg (19.8%), Warren (9.2%)
