Is a recession possible for the US economy? ” I do not think so could tell Joe Biden, who was responding to CNN reporters. ” If there is, it will be a very mild recession. It’s possible, I don’t foresee it “, He still completed. A change of tone when the President of the United States continued to hammer this summer that no, the United States was not in a recession. Approaching elections of send me of 8 November, crucial for the future of a deeply divided country, in the face of increasingly gloomy forecasts for the world economy, the American president seems forced to change the subject.
The forecasts of The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published on Tuesday is in fact clear: the economic slowdown will affect all the richest states, starting with the United States. Growth was revised to just 1.6% in 2022, versus 2.3% expected in July. 2023 could be even more difficult, the Fund expects only 1%. And even if the country’s economy – the labor market – is doing relatively well. But still stretched across the Atlantic, it favors wage increases which in themselves fuel inflation, which central banks want to see a decline.
Globally, economic activity is approaching recession, which could affect several developed countries in 2023, including the United States. ” There is a 25% chance that the global economy will only grow 2% or less next year The chief economist of the IMF Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP. ” This is a situation that has only been experienced five times since 1970, most notably during the 2008 oil shock or financial crisis.. “
The three global locomotives – the United States, China and Europe – are slowing down, particularly under the effect of persistent inflation that is hitting advanced economies and even more emerging and developing countries, and which is expected to reach 8, 8% in world average this year (+0.5 points compared to the July forecasts).
Inevitable recession for Germany and Italy
In the euro area, growth should reach 3.1% in 2022, better than expected in July (+0.5 points), should approach recession in 2023, at a growth of 0.5% (-0.7 points compared to the forecasts of July). And for some Member States, Germany and Italy, the recession seems inevitable next year (-0.3% and -0.2% respectively), while France can hope to stay above the quotation line, with a growth of 0. , 7%. Just like, outside the EU, the UK, at 0.3%.
China, the second largest economy in the world, is expected to experience its worst year in more than 40 years in 2022, if we exclude the pandemic in 2020, with an expected growth of just 3.2%, before recovering slightly in 2023 (4 , 4%). Russia, whose economy is suffering the brunt of the sanctions put in place after the invasion of Ukraine, will experience a recession this year, but the situation should be less marked than expected at the beginning of the summer. It should, however, be the only G20 economy, which meets in Washington on Wednesday, to experience a recession this year. In a gloomy global context, the Latin America and Caribbean region sees its forecasts improve, with growth expected to be 3.5% (+0.5 points) this year.
The future remains uncertain, however, underlines the Fund, which recognizes that its forecasts, especially for 2023, are valid only ” if inflation expectations remain stable and monetary tightening does not lead to a generalized recession or a disorderly adjustment of financial markets “Positive note, however: global inflation is expected to peak in the third quarter (9.5%) and start declining from the last quarter of 2022, continuing this trend next year, to return in the last quarter of 2022. 2023 on a level comparable to 2021 (4.7%).
(With AFP)
