To give reassurances about his age, to check the countless geopolitical threats, to prepare to possibly face another opponent than Donald Trump? Joe Biden’s path to the 2024 presidential election is full of pitfalls.
– 86 years old –
The first is the most obvious: the Democratic president, who just today officially announced his candidacy, is already the oldest person to be elected in the United States. And now in his 80s, he’s asking Americans to give him the keys to the White House until he’s 86.
Medical tests, which he underwent in November 2021 and February 2023, showed that his health is “in good condition” and he is “fit” to carry out his duties.
But Joe Biden, habitually slurring his words and prone to blunders, whose face and demeanor are undeniably age-marked, should expect an uptick in Republican attacks on his intellectual prowess.
This, at the moment when he begins a difficult task: to carry out a campaign with constant movements, while carrying out the duties of one of the most difficult offices in the world.
His course at the moment consists of answering questions about his age with a curt “Watch me!”, inviting his critics to “see” his deeds, or resorting to jokes.
In any case he brought up the matter directly, which is extremely rare, during a recent trip to Ireland.
“I am at the end of my career, not at the beginning,” Joe Biden said in the Dublin Parliament, estimating that over the years he has gained “a little wisdom.”
“I have more experience than any other president in American history. That doesn’t make me better or worse, but it gives me some relief.”
– Trump…or no Trump? –
Joe Biden has never hidden the fact that his preferred opponent for 2024 is Donald Trump, who has already started his campaign. Because he has already defeated him, because the former Republican president, 76 years old, is in the eyes of the Democrats the perfect “scarecrow” and finally because the billionaire will have to do balancing exercises between his election schedule and his judicial adventures.
But the 80-year-old Democrat will have to adjust his campaign if another, younger if not more moderate candidate emerges, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis.
Sure Joe Biden may think the statistics are on his side: American presidents generally run for re-election and are usually re-elected.
But the 80-year-old president, because of his age, defies historical precedent.
– International risks –
Any escalation with Beijing, for example over Taiwan, ahead of the presidential election could disrupt the campaign of Joe Biden, who has shaped his foreign policy around rivalry with China.
At the same time, if the American president has so far succeeded in rallying Westerners, but also public opinion in his own country in favor of Ukraine, what will happen in a year or two? Mainly in front of the Republican opposition, which controls one of the two houses of Congress, and which has promised not to give a “blank check” to Kiev.
And there are other threats: North Korean aggression, Iran’s nuclear program…
– The ‘landing’ of the economy –
So far, all indications are that the world’s leading economic powerhouse is headed for a “soft landing”: growth that slows without causing a burst of unemployment.
But a recession has not been completely ruled out, and the US remains obviously vulnerable to an exogenous shock: an international conflict, a new pandemic, an energy shock, a financial deluge…
This, at a time when the Republican opposition is determined to use all possible levers of pressure to overturn Joe Biden’s fiscal plan, even risking a default.
– The family –
Joe Biden has been through many trials on a personal level: the death of his first wife and their baby in 1972, followed by the death of his oldest son Beau in 2015 from cancer. Today he is even more attached to his family, with his wife Jill Biden being the main support.
His campaign will rely heavily on the support of his own. He may be weakened by attacks on his younger son Hunter, who has struggled with addiction in the past and whose past business dealings have come under fire from Republicans.
From these tragedies, Joe Biden gained an unquestionable confidence in his abilities to bounce back and defy predictions about his political future. But he also says he has acquired a humility in the face of such blows: “I have a lot of respect for fate,” he says often in recent months.
