The job market in the United States is showing signs of easing, despite a still low unemployment rate and an increase in recruitment, according to a survey published by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.
“Employment rose modestly” compared to the previous survey, at the end of May, “with growth in most regions”, underlines the central bank in its Beige book (“Beige book”), an economic report still published two weeks before the next monetary meeting.
This barometer of activity carried out with the twelve regions of the Fed highlights “an improvement in the available workforce, some employers stressing that it is easier to recruit than it was so far”.
Moreover, the level of staff turnover “unusually high in recent years”, which favored the increase in wages and therefore prices, is returning to the standards observed before the pandemic”.
Salaries “continue to increase but more moderately”, underlines the report.
The business leaders interviewed nevertheless continue to report “difficulties in finding employees”, particularly in sectors such as hotels, transport and health.
The Beige Book also highlights a “slight economic growth” at the national level.
The expansion is supported in particular by consumer spending but “the growth is above all in services spending, while traders observe a reduction in discretionary spending”.
In addition, borrowing conditions “continue to ease” and the construction sector fell slightly.
An expenditure item that continues to fuel inflation, demand for housing remains sustained.
Finally, the pace of price increases is slowing in several regions, while “consumers are becoming more and more price-sensitive”.
The survey was carried out over the whole of June.
The Fed’s Monetary Committee (FOMC) is due to meet on July 25 and 26 and decide whether a further rate hike is necessary, after the break decided at the last meeting in mid-June.
Markets are so far betting on another 0.25 percentage point hike in the key rate, currently in a range of 5% to 5.25%, with the Fed considering at least one more hike thereafter by the end of the month. end of the year.
But inflation slowed more than expected in June, the CPI index, published on Wednesday, standing at 3% over one year, its lowest level since March 2021.
As a result, the markets are beginning to think that the expected rise in July could be the last of the cycle.
2023-07-12 19:08:36
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