New Delhi. Voting for the Jharkhand assembly elections will be held on November 13 and 20. The results of the elections will be announced on November 23. In such a situation, election activity is at its peak in the state. At the same time, before the Jharkhand elections, a Materize Survey has come out, in which the seats and vote shares that will be given to various parties in the elections have been estimated.
According to this study, there will be a change of power in Jharkhand. A BJP coalition government is going to be formed in the state, while the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Congress and the RJD alliance are going to get a major blow.
Jharkhand has a history of changing power every five years. In the 81-seat Jharkhand Assembly, 41 seats are required for a majority.
According to Materise survey, BJP alliance is expected to get 45 to 50 seats in Jharkhand. Meanwhile, India Block, led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is expected to win 18 to 25 seats. But others are expected to get 2 to 5 seats. In the 2019 assembly elections, the JMM-led alliance won 47 seats, while the NDA got 25 seats.
Talking about vote percentage, according to Materise survey, BJP alliance is expected to get more than 53 percent of votes. However, the vote share of JMM-Congress and RJD alliance can be 27.9 percent. But others are estimated to get 18.9 percent of the vote.
According to Materise’s analysis, the hold of BJP and its allies seems to be strengthening in Kolhan (Chaibasa), South Chhotanagpur (Ranchi), Palamu (Medininagar). Meanwhile, the JMM alliance is expected to suffer a heavy loss of seats in these five constituencies.
Talking about district seats in Jharkhand, according to Materise analysis, out of 18 seats in Santhal Pargana, BJP alliance is likely to get 6 to 9 seats, and JMM alliance should get 4 to 10 seats. Of the 25 seats in Chhotanagpur North (Hazaribagh), BJP alliance is expected to get 14 to 17 seats and JMM alliance is expected to get 0-4 seats.
In Kolhan, JMM looks set to lose heavily after Champai Soren joins BJP. The survey has predicted a heavy loss for JMM and its allies in Kolhan district, which has around 14 constituencies.
In terms of vote share too, BJP is expected to gain an advantage over the India Bloc. In Kolhan district, BJP alone is expected to get more than 42 percent votes, while in Palamu district it is expected to get more than 47% votes.
Apart from this, in Materise survey, Babulal Marandi has emerged as the most popular face for Chief Minister of Jharkhand. When people in the state were asked who their choice was for the post of CM, around 44% people took the name of Babulal Marandi. However, 30% of people have defined Hemant Soren as the favorite face of the chief minister.
The study of Materise was carried out between 15 October and 9 November. Talking about the sample size, the opinion of 63,842 people of the state was taken in the study. This includes the opinions of more than 30 thousand men, about 21 thousand women and 11 thousand young people.
Tags: Sore hemant, Jharkhand Election 2024, Jharkhand Elections
FIRST PUBLICATION: November 10, 2024, 11:53 PM IST
