Jatuporn assesses the establishment of the government and potential for political crisis in Thailand

“Jatuporn” reinforces the establishment of the government, 312 votes to a dead end The reason why the senators did not support ‘go far’, while ‘Pitha’ was preserved properties While Pheu Thai rushes to grab the President of the Council, looking for an opportunity to move the pole to the side of 188 votes, pulling ‘Form’ the Prime Minister in exchange for 376 senators, believing that the people are rioting in the wild. Fear of ending with the military seizing power

2 June 2023 – Mr. Jatuporn Phromphan, lecturer of the People’s Integration Faculty Facebook Live in Thailand must come first, when it’s “invasive.” At this time, the formation of a 312-voice government implies an escalation with Mr. Phitha’s ITV shareholding factor. Lim Chareonrat Candidates for the Prime Minister, the Progressive Party and the race for the position of Speaker of the House and then mixed with important terms Senators do not support 312 votes

In addition, it also saw that it would expand the pressure for the Pheu Thai Party to separate the poles. Cross over to join hands to form a government with the 188-voice party, while the people’s uprising is difficult to avoid, so if the new government cannot control the peace The chances of ending up with a military seizing power are highly probable.

Mr. Jatuporn assessed that in regard to the qualifications of Mr. Phitha, Mr. Wissanu Krea-ngam, Deputy Prime Minister for Legal Affairs, had sent a pilot signal with a question about whether there were 3 issues in the request for ITV shareholding: the qualifications of MPs, the qualifications for being minister And the endorsement of candidates for MPs, pointing out issues like this is equivalent to the media suggesting a petition to manage Mr. Phitha. In which Mr. Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, candidate for the list of MPs of the Palang Prarat Party Completely filed the petition as asked by Mr. Wissanu.

However, in all 3 cases, Mr. Wissanu sees that the election may be null and void or require a new election for the whole country, but the problem is whether to re-elect only or completely re-election, so now it shows that many games will come out to manage the government with 312 votes, even if The Constitutional Court ruled that Mr. Phitha’s qualifications were not contrary to the Constitution, but had to face a trap of 750 votes (500 MPs plus 250 senators) in voting for the Prime Minister.

Mr. Jatuporn said that under this situation A political equation would arise, which is the first form, 312 votes from 8 parties to form a government. And the other party has 188 votes, not joining the far-reaching party, so the 312-voice party has to rely on the senators born by General Prayut Chan-o-cha

“There is news like a fragrant medicine that will lobby the sound The senators helped the party move forward successfully. That’s a beautiful word. But the real success have to persuade General Prayut Approval, which would be difficult. Therefore, finding another 64 votes is impossible. and this miracle does not exist.”

Mr. Jatuporn said that in the second form, it was the urgency of the Pheu Thai Party to take the position of Speaker of the House in their hands. Because Mr. Phitha’s qualifications will spread to the court, the Constitution ordered the suspension of MPs’ duties, so the prime minister’s candidate of the Pheu Thai Party will have the opportunity to vote in the parliamentary meeting. not only that The Pheu Thai Party may use the encircled situation to form a new government with 188 parties and pull senators to support it. Probability with the establishment of a government will have success. therefore has a higher tendency

However, the conditions for breaking the siege from 312 votes were largely due to the fact that there was an obstacle for the 8 parties as the 8 parties joined together to form a government under 312 votes and have a prime ministerial candidate. of the Pheu Thai Party But there would also be a lack of support from senators. Then Pheu Thai crossed the pole to form a government with 188 votes, thus being the way to guarantee that the senators had successfully pulled all 376 votes.

“If the Progressive Party also joins the government, then in the 188 votes it cannot add up. Because Pride Thai Party and two uncles (Prawit-Prayut) does not take the party to move far. But if Pheu Thai crosses Huai to form a government with 188 votes, may be confident that there is guarantee from The senator came to vote in support.”

Mr. Jatuporn said that in the situation, the Pheu Thai Party crossed the border to join hands with 188 votes to form the government. Even though he may have avoided accusations of betraying his friends But had to brush off the Prime Minister’s position because he didn’t want the Prime Minister’s candidate Both Ung-Ing, Pae Thongtarn, Shinawatra or Mr. Srettha Thavisin had to face the protests of the chaotic masses like a hot bonfire that engulfed the city.

“So General Prawit Wongsuwan (Candidate Prime Minister Palang Pracharat Party) has a chance to get support for Prime Minister Come to deal with the chaos that implies that it will happen violently. If you can’t cope, there is General Prayut ready to come to make peace To the end if you still can’t handle it. Probably the situation dragged to please listen again. (military seizure) followed.”

Mr. Jatuporn believes that General Prawit will be the prime minister’s candidate. Let the parliament vote as the next prime minister, and also have to evaluate the results of consideration. Mr. Phitha’s MP as well Will it spread to affect the 151 MPs of the Kao Far Party who have been elected illegally according to the Constitution or not, because it will indicate a new election in 112 districts or the whole country must follow each other with excitement?

Therefore, any Thai political board can happen. And public uprising is inevitable. But after the uprising, there will be a very sensitive situation awaiting. by during the month This June will see an acceleration of certification. MPs quickly In accordance with the case of Mr. Phitha, who will go to the Constitutional Court with conditions for the opening of the council meeting Which all these situations will lead to what must be seriously thought. And it’s definitely not a pretty world situation.

However, during this almost two-month situation, the certification of MPs must be completed before July 13, as well as believing that Various political aftershocks It will spread very quickly. Therefore, analyzing and evaluating the situation of people who do not belong to or belong to a political party will be able to see the phenomenon all around according to the existing facts of each party.

“I have to accept one fact that The Progressive Party is in a difficult situation to be in government. and chances of survival of Mr. Phitha The most difficult. but will spread to Are all 151 elected MPs and non-elected MPs of the party going far? So we still have to fight. Due to the conditions of Mr. Phitha It’s a different case that Mr. Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit Former leader of the Future Forward Party (party dissolution) who was released as an MP for holding media shares So Mr. Phitha must be extremely worried Not saying I’m not worried.”

Including saying that political boards are not complicated. Because they are all influenced by the 2017 constitutional rules, with players in this board having to plug all the holes. In addition, there is a lesson from Mr. Thanathorn’s case, so he must be careful in holding media shares. Which is difficult to wriggle out of the law, so when walking wrong and becoming a prominent political competitor inevitably will be dealt with by the game that went wrong to get out of the way

Mr. Jatuporn mentions that Mr. Phitha will meet and discuss with government officials that Should not act in a hurry before being certified as an MP or already in the government because there is currently no legal status to be able to call civil servants to talk about information in the bureaucratic system except meeting with the private sector can be done on behalf of a political party