The Collapse of Japan’s Middle Layer: How Economic Shifts Are Accelerating Marriage Decline
Japan’s government has expanded child-rearing support systems, yet the number of marriages continues to plummet.Why are fewer Japanese people tying the knot? According to researcher Kazuhisa Arakawa, “Rather of increasing births, the current declining birthrate is producing ironic results, accelerating the marriage decline in the middle layer.”
The Middle Layer of Japan is Collapsing
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The world is a place of contrasts.Were there is light, there is shadow. Where there are strong individuals, there are inevitably weaker ones. This dynamic plays out in academics, sports, romance, adn marriage. Arakawa’s “law of 30% of love strong people” has held true for over 40 years since the 1980s. this principle suggests that only 30% of individuals dominate romantic relationships, leaving the remaining 70% in varying degrees of vulnerability.
In capitalist societies, economic disparities further divide the population into the wealthy and the economically vulnerable. However, the focus often shifts to the extremes—the strong versus the weak—while ignoring the middle layer. This intermediate group, which constitutes the largest population, is now collapsing.
Just 10 Years Ago, Marriage Was Possible with an Annual Income of 3 Million Yen
The declining birthrate in Japan is closely tied to the decline in marriages, notably among those in the middle-income bracket. marriage, as a enduring life choice, requires economic stability. Women, in particular, prioritize a partner’s financial capability. According to the Basic Survey of Birth Trends in 2021, 91.6% of women consider “male economic power” a critical factor when choosing a spouse.
Moreover, women often prefer to marry men with higher incomes than themselves. A 2022 analysis of married couples in their twenties revealed that 70% of women engage in “upper marriage,” where the man earns more, while only 10% opt for “downward marriage,” where the woman earns more.
For men, increasing financial power opens the door to marriage.However,this path has become steeper. As women’s university entrance rates rise and their earnings increase, the expectation to marry someone with a higher income creates a paradoxical situation. The higher a woman’s income, the higher the financial hurdle for her potential spouse.
A decade ago, men in their twenties could marry with an annual income of 3 million yen. Even in their thirties, 4 million yen was sufficient. Though, between 2014 and 2015, the “male marriage personal income” inflated dramatically. Today, it’s rare to see men in their twenties earning enough to meet these marriage expectations.
Key Insights at a Glance
| Factor | Details |
|———————————|—————————————————————————–|
| Middle Layer Collapse | The intermediate economic group is shrinking, accelerating marriage decline.|
| Women’s Preferences | 91.6% of women prioritize male economic power in marriage decisions. |
| Upper Marriage Trend | 70% of women marry men with higher incomes.|
| Income Threshold Shift | A decade ago, 3 million yen sufficed for marriage; now, it’s insufficient. |
The collapse of Japan’s middle layer and the rising financial expectations for marriage are reshaping the country’s social fabric. As economic disparities widen, the path to marriage becomes increasingly inaccessible for many, further exacerbating the nation’s demographic challenges.
Photo = istock.com / yue_
The Collapse of Japan’s Middle Layer: How economic Shifts Are accelerating Marriage Decline
Japan’s marriage rates are plummeting, and the reasons are deeply tied to the country’s economic landscape. As the middle-income group shrinks,financial expectations for marriage are rising,making it increasingly difficult for many to tie the knot.To explore this issue further, we sat down with Dr. Haruto Tanaka, a sociologist specializing in Japanese demographics and marriage trends, to discuss the factors driving this decline and its broader societal implications.
The Shrinking Middle Layer: A Catalyst for Marriage Decline
Senior Editor: Dr. Tanaka, let’s start with the concept of the “middle layer collapse.” Can you explain how this phenomenon is contributing to the decline in marriages?
Dr. Tanaka: absolutely. The middle layer refers to the intermediate economic group—those who are neither wealthy nor economically vulnerable. Historically, this group has been the backbone of Japan’s society, providing stability and enabling life milestones like marriage. However,as economic disparities widen,this middle layer is shrinking. Many individuals in this group are finding it harder to achieve the financial stability required for marriage, which is a key factor in the declining marriage rates.
Senior Editor: How does this collapse affect societal dynamics, particularly in terms of relationships?
Dr. Tanaka: it creates a ripple effect. When the middle layer shrinks, the gap between the wealthy and the economically vulnerable grows. This polarization makes it harder for people to find partners who meet their financial expectations. As a notable example, women, who frequently enough prioritize a partner’s economic power, are less likely to marry someone from a lower income bracket. This dynamic further accelerates the decline in marriages, as fewer people can meet these rising financial thresholds.
Women’s Preferences and the Rising Financial Bar
Senior Editor: Speaking of women’s preferences, the article mentions that 91.6% of women consider male economic power a critical factor in marriage decisions. Why is this such a dominant factor?
Dr. Tanaka: It’s rooted in both cultural and practical considerations. In Japan, marriage is often seen as a lifelong commitment that requires financial stability, especially when raising children. women, who are increasingly educated and financially self-reliant, seek partners who can provide a secure future. This preference is reflected in the trend of “upper marriage,” where 70% of women marry men with higher incomes. As women’s earnings rise, so do their expectations, creating a higher financial bar for potential spouses.
Senior Editor: How has this financial bar shifted over time?
dr. Tanaka: A decade ago, an annual income of 3 million yen was considered sufficient for marriage. Today,that figure is no longer enough. The rising cost of living,coupled with higher expectations,has inflated the financial threshold. For men in their twenties, earning enough to meet these expectations has become increasingly rare, further limiting their chances of marriage.
The Paradox of Rising Incomes and Marriage Accessibility
Senior Editor: You mentioned earlier that women’s rising incomes create a paradox. Can you elaborate on that?
Dr.Tanaka: Certainly. As women achieve higher levels of education and income, their expectations for a partner’s financial capability also increase. This creates a paradox where the more financially independent a woman becomes,the harder it is indeed for her to find a partner who meets her expectations. This dynamic disproportionately affects men, who now face a steeper climb to achieve the financial stability required for marriage.
Senior Editor: How does this paradox impact Japan’s demographic challenges?
Dr. Tanaka: It exacerbates the declining birthrate. Fewer marriages mean fewer families and,consequently,fewer children. This trend has long-term implications for Japan’s aging population and workforce. Without addressing the economic barriers to marriage, it will be difficult to reverse these demographic challenges.
Key Takeaways and the Path Forward
Senior Editor: What are the key takeaways from this discussion, and what steps can be taken to address these issues?
Dr. Tanaka: The key takeaway is that economic disparities and rising financial expectations are central to Japan’s marriage decline. To address this, we need policies that support economic stability for the middle layer, such as wage growth and affordable housing. Additionally, societal attitudes toward marriage and financial expectations may need to evolve to reflect the realities of modern life. Without these changes,the path to marriage will remain inaccessible for many,further straining Japan’s social fabric.
Senior Editor: Thank you, Dr. Tanaka, for your insightful analysis. It’s clear that addressing these economic and societal challenges is crucial for Japan’s future.
photo = istock.com / yue_
