Japan’s proposed chip goal “beyond 2 nanometers” Ji Yuan surpassed China has been criticized as a castle in the sky, the outlook is shaky | blog posts

On the same day that Rapidus was announced, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan also announced that it will establish an advanced semiconductor research and development center LSTC with the United States later this year, and has allocated a budget of about 350 billion yen for this purpose. Japanese media analysis believes that LSTC and Rapidus will become the two pillars of Japan’s semiconductor revitalization. The former will develop the latest semiconductor technology with American companies including IBM, and the latter will be responsible for linking research results with the mass production and the conversion of technology into Product.

According to Japanese media analysis, Japan did not invest in developing cutting-edge products 10 years ago and lost to its opponents in international competition. This new company is Japan’s “last chance” to restore the gap of 10 years.

This time, Rapidus has caused shocks in both Japan and the global semiconductor industry, largely due to its 2-nanometer and smaller target. Currently, the world’s most advanced semiconductor process technology is 3 nanometers. TSMC and Samsung Electronics started mass production of 3-nanometer chips this year and expect to mass-produce 2-nanometer chips as early as 2025. In contrast, Japanese companies are currently only able to produce chips around 40 nanometers .

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How big is the gap from 40nm to 2nm? Takashi Yugami, director of the Japan Institute of Precision Processing, previously wrote that from 40 nanometers to 2 nanometers, there are 32 nanometers, 22 nanometers, 16/14 nanometers, 10 nanometers, 7 nanometers, 5 nanometers and 3 nanometers in between. Breakthrough, “In other words, 2nm is currently ahead of Japan’s nine-generation level.”

It is precisely because of such a huge leap that many people in the industry and the media are not optimistic that Japan will be able to reach the 2-nanometer goal in the next 10 years. Li Cheng, an engineer at a Chinese chip design firm, pointed out that if Japan only set the target at 14nm or even 7nm, there would be little doubt. Because starting from 7nm, the difficulty of chip design and manufacturing has increased significantly. At present, only Samsung and TSMC in the world have mastered the relevant technology. Li Cheng said that although Japanese companies occupy an important position in the fields of memory chips, semiconductor equipment and photoresist, they have lagged behind in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. “It’s hard to believe that Japan can change course within 10 years.”

Japan’s Kyodo News “poured a basin of cold water” on the country’s government from the field of capital investment. The media said there was a huge gap between the Japanese government’s 70 billion yen in financial support for Rapidus and the US government’s $52.7 billion investment in the ‘Chip Act’, which “casts doubts on the Japanese government’s determination to revitalize the chip industry.” . In addition, Kyodo News also said that due to the stagnation of the Japanese semiconductor industry over the past 10 years, Rapidus may soon find that it is difficult to find skilled engineers and workers in Japan.

Perhaps it is precisely because of the awareness that there are some shortcomings in the country that are difficult to fill for a while, that the Japanese government is placing the hope of obtaining advanced technology in American companies. In July this year, Japan and the United States held the first meeting of the “2+2 economic version” talks in Washington and reached an agreement on accelerating the development of next-generation semiconductors.

While working with the United States to develop the semiconductor industry, there are also voices of concern in Japan: Is Washington, which once suppressed Japan’s semiconductor industry, trustworthy? In the 1980s, Japanese products once accounted for more than 50% of the global semiconductor market, prompting the United States to take various measures to suppress related Japanese companies. In 1986, the United States and Japan signed the “US-Japan Semiconductor Agreement.” Japan was to open up the semiconductor market and ensure that foreign companies would gain 20% market share in Japan within five years. Subsequently, the United States resorted to anti-dumping and other measures and imposed high punitive tariffs, with the result that Japan’s semiconductor industry began to lose its edge.

Li Cheng said that the United States is willing to cooperate with Japan this time, to a certain extent, also want to attract Japan into its “small circle” of chips, and require Japan to keep up with the policy of suppressing chips United States Chinese semiconductors. Li Cheng predicted that, according to the current US regulations, Rapidus products that are expected to use a large number of American technologies may not be able to enter the Chinese market, and losing this huge market could further reduce the development prospects of Rapidus. and other Japanese companies.

Chen Yan, executive director of the Japanese Enterprise (China) Research Institute, stressed that he is not too optimistic about the prospects for Rapidus. Even if Japan surpasses 2nm chips, even if they are developed and exported to the world, the premise is to ensure that the company can receive the latest orders and continuously update products, which requires very large consumer market support . Of course, it is not enough to rely solely on the Japanese domestic market: in the chip market, the combined markets of the United States and Japan account for less than 1/3 of the global market. Taking the memory chip market as an example, the world’s largest market is in China. Chinese e-commerce platforms such as JD.com have huge demand for data storage, followed by the Southeast Asian market, and the Japanese and American markets do not account for a large part. Chen Yan believes that it is very difficult for Japan to develop a new chip consumption market without China.

In addition, Chen Yan believes that 2nm and 3nm chips are mainly used in high-precision products in navigation, aerospace and other fields, and the current global demand is not large. “Nihon Keizai Shimbun” reported on the 22nd with the headline “The Blind Spot of Semiconductor Nano-Competition, China Has the Last Laugh?” that China is very calm in the face of the “Nano-Competition”. Automotive and consumer electronics manufacturers around the world need general purpose products beyond 10nm. Perhaps in three to four years, the global market will be filled with low-cost, high-quality legacy technology semiconductors made in China. While Japan won technically, it may have lost on the market.