Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 65, cited his health problems as the reason for his decision to resign on Friday August 28. His ulcerative colitis, a chronic inflammatory bowel disease he has suffered from since adolescence, is at risk of worsening, he told Jiji Press. The head of the Japanese government, who surpassed August 24 in terms of longevity in power his great-uncle, Eisaku Sato (Prime Minister from 1964 to 1972), thus confirmed the rumors which had intensified since his two stints in the hospital, August 17 and 24.
In addition to his health problems and the drop in his popularity, the turmoil behind the scenes of his movement, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), in recent days tended to indicate that Mr. Abe was losing his footing and that the race for his succession was indeed on.
In the meantime, Mr Abe will remain in office until his successor is appointed. The choice of the successor will give rise, as often in politics in Japan, to arbitrations behind closed doors, punctuated by cryptic statements by the LDP caciques, which will reflect more the power balances between its five major factions (clans) than political orientations. .
Lack of credible opposition
This time around, the process should be watched closely by Mr Abe to avoid any risk of prosecution for favoritism and corruption scandals – his former justice minister, Katsuyuki Kawai, accused of vote buying in senatorial elections. of 2019, would have threatened to question him – which punctuated his mandate, even for his controversial management of the Covid-19 pandemic. The question remains open as to whether he still has sufficient power to manage his estate.
Since his return to business in 2012 – after his disgrace in 2007, after a year and already because of health problems, of his first term as head of government – Mr Abe has been able to stay in power in more because of the absence of a credible opposition than of a real popular support: from election to election, the liberal democratic majority is renewed, but half of the voters do not go to the polls.
Shinzo Abe ran the business with the help of carefully controlled communication, guided by the powerful and influential advertising agency Dentsu, and acted as the lobbies wanted (business circles, religious sects, nationalist right-wing pressure groups). such as the Nippon Kaigi who support the PLD).
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