Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Approval Ratings and Prospects in the Upcoming Election

Original title: Support ratings are in “dangerous waters” (quote)

Kishida Fumio’s re-election prospects are worrying (theme)

Bi Zhenshan

One month has passed since 2024, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been “suffering” for a month.

On January 30, local time, Fumio Kishida delivered a policy speech at the plenary session of the House of Representatives and the Senate, apologizing for the Liberal Democratic Party’s “black gold” scandal. Kishida said that in the future, he plans to amend the “Political Funds Regulation Act” and promote reforms in aspects such as transparency and thorough compliance of political funds to restore people’s trust in politics.

Indeed, the Liberal Democratic Party’s “black gold” scandal was the biggest challenge Kishida faced in the past month.

Since December last year, the Liberal Democratic Party’s “black money” scandal has continued to spread, and the Abe faction, the Nikkei faction, and the Kishida faction have been involved. In order to curb the negative impact of the scandal, Kishida first purged Abe’s cabinet ministers and senior leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then personally took the lead in announcing the dissolution of the factions, which in turn triggered the dissolution of four of the six major factions of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Despite this, Kishida still failed to restore the continued sluggish approval rating of the cabinet.

A recent poll conducted by “Nihon Keizai Shimbun” showed that the support rate of Kishida’s cabinet was 27%, which has been in “dangerous waters” for two consecutive months. The Liberal Democratic Party’s support rate is 31%, which is higher than the cabinet support rate for three consecutive months. In addition, nearly 60% of the respondents expressed support for Kishida Fumio’s dissolution of the Liberal Democratic Party faction, but this failed to improve the support rate of Kishida’s cabinet.

For Kishida, it is not only the “black gold” scandal that has lowered the cabinet’s approval rating, but also the sluggish economy.

In 2023, affected by continued inflation, the real income of the Japanese people will not increase but fall. According to data released by the Japanese government, Japan’s average core consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food increased by 3.1% year-on-year in 2023, hitting a 41-year high. As of November 2023, Japan’s real wage income has decreased year-on-year for 20 consecutive months, and household consumption expenditure has declined for nine consecutive months.

In order to combat inflation and stimulate growth, the Kishida cabinet passed a large-scale economic stimulus plan in November last year, including tax cuts and subsidies to low-income families. The investment is expected to exceed 17 trillion yen. In his policy speech on January 30, Kishida once again stated that “economic recovery” is the government’s biggest mission and will strive to achieve an increase in national income that exceeds price increases. Kishida also said that the government will formulate an unprecedented scale of expenditures to support childcare policies to cope with the population decline.

In the third quarter of 2023, Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 2.9% on an annual basis. Preliminary statistical results released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on January 31 showed that Japan’s seasonally adjusted industrial and mining production index rose by 1.8% month-on-month to 105.9 in December 2023. Some analysts pointed out that although this means that Japan’s economy may rebound in the fourth quarter of last year, in the long term, weak domestic demand and labor shortage will still be challenges facing the Japanese economy.

When domestic affairs lack highlights, Japanese politicians generally use diplomacy to “add points” to themselves. When Kishida’s cabinet approval ratings were low before, he had boosted them by hosting the G7 summit. Kishida also declared in his 2024 New Year’s speech that Japan will exert “unique leadership” in the world this year.

However, when Kishida stated on January 30 that Japan was willing to conclude a peace treaty with Russia but would continue to implement sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine, Russia quickly responded.

Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said that Russia plans to deploy new weapons in the Southern Kuril Islands (called the Four Northern Islands in Japan). Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova also stated that Russia does not intend to negotiate a peace treaty with Japan in view of Japan’s unfriendly line toward Russia. Zakharova said that Russia will continue to respond to any new hostile actions by the Japanese authorities, make full use of all available means, and take the most severe and significant countermeasures against Japan.

In April this year, Fumio Kishida will visit the United States. Analysts pointed out that strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance has always been the main theme of Kishida’s cabinet’s foreign policy. The success of this trip will also affect Kishida’s support within the Liberal Democratic Party and among the public to a certain extent.

For Kishida, winning the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September this year should be the most important goal at this stage. Polls conducted by Japanese media show that among potential Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidates, former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba has the highest approval rate, followed by former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and current Digital Minister Taro Kono. Kishida only has an approval rate of 3%. Ranked seventh. If Kishida cannot make some breakthroughs in domestic affairs or diplomacy, it may be very difficult to win the election.

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2024-02-01 23:36:00