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January Housing Prices in 70 Cities: Month-on-Month Decrease Narrows, Positive Signals for Market Confidence – Expert Analysis

House prices in 70 cities in January

The overall month-on-month decrease narrowed

◎Reporter Chen Fang

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 23 showed that in January, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline year-on-year, with the month-on-month decline narrowing, and the number of cities experiencing month-on-month declines was decreasing. Experts interviewed analyzed that the current housing price index shows positive signals, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence among home buyers.

In January, the price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points narrower than in December 2023. Among them, Shanghai’s new home prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s new home prices fell by 0.1%, 0.8% and 0.7% month-on-month respectively.

“Shanghai continues to be the city with the strongest housing prices, which is related to the city’s better fundamentals.” Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, analyzed that in addition to Shanghai, cities with larger month-on-month housing price index increases include Wuxi, Quanzhou and Changchun etc.

During the same period, the price of new homes in second-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month; the price of new homes in third-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points narrower than in December 2023.

Yan Yuejin said: “The month-on-month indicators in the three categories of cities are all improving, which shows that the improvement in the housing price index in January this year is universal.”

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that in January, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, 56 and 68 cities saw month-on-month decreases in new and second-hand home prices respectively, a decrease of 6 and 2 respectively from December 2023.

“The month-on-month decline in the house price index began to narrow after reaching a staged high in December 2023, indicating that the period of greatest pressure may have passed, and is currently entering a stage of narrowing decline.” Yan Yuejin analyzed.

There have been new trends in real estate market policies recently. Shell Research Institute stated that the People’s Bank of China has significantly reduced the LPR for more than 5 years, which has a positive impact on both ends of the real estate supply and demand. On the supply side, the financing costs of real estate companies have been reduced after the interest rate cut, which is conducive to the investment, construction and delivery of new housing projects; on the demand side, under the current low down payment and low interest rate credit environment, the threshold for residents to purchase houses has been lowered, and the monthly payment pressure has been alleviated, which will continue to promote rigid demand and The release of demand for improved housing is conducive to the smooth restoration of market transactions.

2024-02-23 19:29:39
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