January Effect, high chance of occurrence 70%
Stock Exchange Index Yesterday, it closed as expected, down 3.76 points. The index still moved within the market’s estimation.
The trading value increased to 45,241 million baht from yesterday’s trading volume of 43,272 million baht, and it is the third day in a row that the trading volume exceeded 40 billion baht.
Yesterday, foreigners turned around and sold for 898 million baht.
After net buying for three consecutive days totaling more than 2,832 million baht
As for institutional investors, they also turned to sell for 616 million baht, having previously bought net for 6 consecutive business days for a total of 5,406 million baht, which likely had the main amount come from the TESG fund.
Foreign investors’ return to selling yesterday
This causes retail investors to be unsure whether this year foreigners will really return to buy Thai stocks or not.
Investment is therefore still in the form of “looking at” for now.
If you have stocks in your portfolio that are enough to make 2-3 profits, then sell them to make a profit.
As for institutional investors Or various funds have been in conflict with foreigners since before.
In 2024, as far as interviewing analysts from many brokerages They are still confident that Fundflow will definitely come back. But it will probably be in the form of “gradual purchases”
Then there may be a switch in sales. To make some profit
Especially if there is clarity about the Federal Reserve. Or will the Fed start cutting interest rates in the middle of this year?
It makes more confidence that Foreigners will definitely come back.
But there are still factors that are additional variables. China’s economy Must return for appointment And problems in the Middle East must not escalate.
Yesterday, the banking group had selling pressure to take profits.
It is normal for this group of stocks to play for 1-3 days, after which the stocks will be sold off.
Krungthai KTB price still moves in the range of 18.00-18.50 baht or if it is a little better. The price will rise up to 18.80-18.90 baht.
If the earnings trend Have good profits according to appointment or higher than expected The price should move past 19.00 baht.
But probably not more than 19.50-20.00 baht, which is an important resistance level.
TISCO, a stock with a good dividend payout ratio and the stock price is relatively stable Especially after adjusting the dividend policy every 2 years.
Recently, the price has risen to the level of 100 baht.
If you want to buy dividends You may have to wait to shrink down a bit.
Another interesting thing is There has been a return to chasing stocks. Airports Public Company Limited or AOT
The supporting factor probably comes from the issue of free Chinese visas.
It also affects stocks in the hotel, restaurant and real estate groups such as SIRI as well.
The part that the market is watching this month, the price every year, is the January Effect, which most analysts are confident in. There will be a chance of occurring as high as 70%.
And this January, the market is likely to provide a positive return of not less than 3%.
Because going back 10 years, there has been the January Effect for 7 years.
As for stocks leading the market this month, such as big caps with high yields. What about stocks that benefit from economic stimulus measures?
such as E-Receipt and free Chinese visa
2024-01-03 23:22:01
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