The electoral contest of 2024 is essentially about the personality of the candidates, it is not about politics, states in his interview with “Vima” the James Lindsaysenior vice president, director of studies and holder of the Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, noting that Kamala Harris needs to show that her appeal is not about being a new face, but that she has an agenda and messages effective for the country.
You argued when Biden retired and Kamala Harris entered the presidential race that American politics was entering terra incognita, do you still hold the same view?
“The situation that has developed is unprecedented in US political history. No candidate had ever withdrawn just a month before the convention where they would be nominated. The transition from Biden to Kamala Harris has been as good as it gets for the Democrats. When there was speculation about whether or not Biden would withdraw, Democratic circles worried that the search for a new candidate would be divisive, especially if there was an open process.
Those fears did not materialize, Biden nominated Harris and the party rallied around her. We see from both the donations and the polls that he has emboldened the Democrats, the so-called enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans has closed and now favors the Democrats. However, a good start does not guarantee a victorious end.”
Can this excitement not last?
“It will depend on how good the vice president’s campaign is. She is not known to many Americans. She will tell them in the coming weeks who she is, what she wants to do, but at the same time the Trump campaign will define her in unflattering terms. Most Americans have already decided who they will vote for. She is on the red team with Trump or the blue team with Kamala Harris.
Elections are held in 50 States and one territory. You can easily predict how the citizens will vote in 42 of them. The so-called unaffiliated voters are few and far between in the six battleground states. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Polls now show that either Trump or Harris could win in these states. The contest is a neck-and-neck affair, and the outcome will depend on how successful each side is in mobilizing their voters.
For Harris, it’s important to get young people to vote, who historically don’t participate in elections, but when they do, they tend to vote for Democratic candidates. The situation is more complicated if we take into account that in many States the elections are held earlier than November 5th. In Minnesota and South Dakota they start on September 20. That might help Democrats in case their enthusiasm fizzles later. But we don’t know what the Republicans will do, as Trump has been skeptical of early voting.”
You said voters don’t know Kamala Harris. How then does it fare better in the polls?
“Even among Democrats, Biden was becoming increasingly unpopular. Most Americans and a majority of Democrats believed that Biden was too old to run.
Harris’ entry into the race caused excitement among Democrats. She needs to show that her appeal is not that she is a new face, but that she has an agenda and messages that work for the country. He has to convince ambivalent voters. At the same time, Trump claims that she is not suitable, that her policies will destroy the country, that she is more left-wing than Biden. We will see a competition between their narratives.”
What is her agenda, is there a clear picture?
“It’s ongoing. She initially emphasizes her resume, that she is younger than Biden and younger than Trump. Many Americans believe that Trump is too old to be president. There will be details about her politics, but the 2024 election is essentially about the personality of the candidates, not about politics, and as I said many have already made up their minds.
Harris is trying to show that she is tough and strong enough, that she has the energy to handle the challenges that a president faces. Her message is that she is not afraid of Trump and that she will show why he is unfit to be president. At the same time, he will be the recipient of critical messages from Trump. He’ll say that Harris is opening the US border, he’ll mention what he doesn’t like about Biden’s politics.
The debate between Trump and Harris is important. Trump will accuse her of both policy and personality issues. He will say that she is too liberal, too woke. There will be political ads that differ from State to State, where he will accuse her of specific issues that are important in each State. Trump recently said Harris is not tough enough to take on world leaders. There is also the issue of race and its leaf.”
After Biden withdrew Trump was in a state of disarray regarding his campaign. Is it staying or has it found some stride?
“Trump’s campaign was based on Biden. The transition to Harris has many challenges. They are different people, with different strengths and weaknesses. We’ll see if the Trump campaign can come up with a clear message, we’ll see how far he goes to claim she’s a DEI candidate, how he accuses her of her gender without becoming a boomerang for him.
But can he himself be true to his campaign messages? Because he rarely “stands” on a message with discipline. At the same time, Harris is on her honeymoon, but at some point she will have to answer questions from reporters and Trump’s people will take advantage of her words. Every campaign reaches a point where it stumbles. We’ll see then how well Harris reacts to it.”
How will it move in foreign policy?
“I estimate that he will articulate a foreign policy vision with more or less pieces of Biden’s policy. I don’t expect him to start new initiatives. The election campaign is not the right field.”
#James #Lindsey #podium #Trumps #campaign #based #Biden
