The economy looks to the coming months positively: Most companies want to produce more, hire more employees and invest more, shows the new IW business survey. However, there are clear differences between the industries.
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Low incidences, good weather and vacation time: the general optimism is also giving the German economy a boost. For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, most companies are looking confidently to the current year: That is the result of the new IW business survey, for which around 2,000 companies were surveyed in June. 51 percent of the companies are now anticipating higher production in 2021, only 15 percent plan to produce less than in the previous year. Around 42 percent also want to invest more. Around 43 percent of companies are planning to employ more employees than in the crisis year 2020. Compared to the survey in spring, the mood has brightened significantly, with optimists now dominating all categories.
Industry particularly optimistic, service providers still cautious
However, there are big differences between the industries: At the beginning of the pandemic, the industry had to cope with particularly sharp production declines. Now 59 percent of companies are optimistic about the future – even though important components such as chips are still not available. In the service sector, around every second company is optimistic about the future; only 13 percent of companies expect a deterioration in 2021 compared to the previous year. The construction industry, on the other hand, is more cautious: only 37 percent of companies are optimistic for the full year 2021, 25 percent expect a worse business situation than in the previous year. This is mainly due to the fact that the industry came through the crisis much better than others, so a significant improvement is not to be expected. In addition, many building materials are scarce or not available at all, which dampens the mood.
A new lockdown would be fatal
In order for the economy to continue to pick up speed, a high vaccination rate must be maintained – a new lockdown would be fatal. “The pandemic is currently losing its horror,” says IW economic chief Michael Grömling. “However, it will take years before the slump is evened out again. That is why there must not be any new disruptions in this fragile phase. “
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