Table of Contents
These sites are talking about them because they were right: while all the polls gave Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck until the last moment, all these online betting sites said Trump was going to winwhether Predict It, Kalshi ou Polymarket which is the one we talk about the most here. Already a month before the election, on Polymarket Trump passed Harris, his curve climbed inexorably and on the morning of the election the site showed that the Republican candidate had a 62% chance of winning.
Polymarket
At that time, many experts in American political life were extremely suspicious for many reasons, but one of them was that, according to them, the site could easily be manipulated by voters who absolutely wanted that Donald Trump passes and until the end these experts prefer to stick to tradition, that is to say to the polls – which were wrong. Result : the boss of Polymarket, the very young Shayne Coplan, 26 years old, is too proud. On MSNBC, he notes that it was on his site that he had to follow the vote, not on TV “It’s undeniable: the night of the election Polymarket was the first to communicate that Donald Trump had won and we did it two, three hours before the media. If you watched TV, you thought it was still tight.”
Shayne Coplan who is being smart but he may have something to worry about since last week the FBI showed up at his apartment in New York to seize his cell phone and electronic equipment. We don’t yet know why but what we do know is that on Polymarket, exchanges are done in cryptocurrency. And the election alone sent more than 3 billion dollars through the site.
It’s already tomorrow Listen later
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With a huge punter who intrigues a lot!
A French punter! Registered under the name of Theo. He bet nearly 30 million on Trump’s victory, we’re talking about 85 million profits** and not on a whim. In the Wall Street Journal, we learn that the mysterious Théo had his own survey conducted among American voters and he realized that there were very many of them who did not dare say that they were going to vote for Trump. They are called “shy Trumpers”, shy Trumpists. Théo therefore had flair, like Polymarket, another big winner – with Trump – of this election.
The 80” Listen later
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Nded questions to start a conversation with the guests:
Section 1: Introduction
– How did you become involved in the world of online betting and what draws you to it?
– Can you tell us about the importance of data analysis in predicting election results using online betting platforms?
– How do you balance the potential for manipulation and bias in online betting data with its accuracy?
Section 2: Polymarket
– Can you discuss Polymarket’s role in accurately predicting the 2020 U.S. presidential election results ahead of the media? What were some of the factors contributing to this success?
- How do you ensure the credibility and transparency of your platform in the face of criticism or regulatory scrutiny?
– What lessons can be learned from Polymarket’s success in predicting the election for future political events?
Section 3: Theo
– As a French punter, what motivated you to place such a significant bet on Trump’s victory in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
– Can you describe your methodology for identifying “shy Trumpers” and how this informed your predictions?
– In what ways do you think online betting platforms like Polymarket can improve voter engagement and participation in future elections?
Section 4: Conclusion
– What advice would you give to those considering using online betting platforms for predicting election results?
– Is there a place for online betting in the broader context of political journalism and analysis? If so, how can it be best utilized?
– What are some potential risks or challenges associated with the growth of online betting in the political sphere?
