This Tuesday is the big day of the presidential primaries in the United States, a key date known as Super Tuesday in which the largest number of delegates are distributed in a single day – more than 35% – and which can leave the candidacies practically resolved for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The presidential primaries began on January 15 in Iowa for the Republicans and on February 3 in South Carolina for the Democrats, and only a handful of states have voted since then.
These early dates have traditionally served to define the favorites and for the candidates with less support to withdraw. This is what happened this year with the Republicans, with the abandonments of Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy.
The importance of Super Tuesday lies in the large percentage of delegates from the two major parties that are chosen early in the primaries, leaving the process normally very much on track for the future winner.
What states vote?
There are 14 of the 50 states in the country that will hold Republican and Democratic primaries, including California and Texas, the largest in the country. The others are Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
California and Texas are the states that will allocate the most delegates this March 5 and will practically resolve the nominations of Biden, who does not have a significant rival, and Trump, since in the Republican case the candidate who exceeds 50% wins. the majority of the delegates.
In addition to those 14 states, Republicans in Alaska are called on this date, while Democratic voters abroad and in the territories of American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands will also be able to choose their candidate this Super Tuesday.
How many delegates are distributed?
On this Super Tuesday, the Republicans will elect 865 of the 2,429 delegates who will be called to the Republican National Convention next July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), that is, 35.6% of the total.
For their part, the Democrats elect on this date 1,439 of the 3,934 delegates – 36.5% – who will proclaim their candidate at the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago (Illinois).
Can Biden win the primaries on Super Tuesday?
No. Even if Biden wins all the delegates at stake (so far only two have escaped him in the Michigan primaries), adding his current 206 would leave him at 1,645, still 323 away from the magic figure of 1,968 given by the Democratic candidacy. .
The most likely thing is that in the absence of significant opposition, Biden will obtain the necessary number of delegates to be considered the winner of the primaries on March 19, when another half-dozen states have elected their delegates.
¿Y Trump?
Neither. Although the former president dominates the Republican primaries without setbacks, the presence of Nikki Haley in the race is delaying the day when the former president can claim victory.
Trump now has 244 delegates and before Super Tuesday the Republicans still have to elect another 29 in the North Dakota caucuses.
Even if Trump took absolutely all the delegates – something unlikely – he would still not reach the 1,215 he needs to be declared a candidate.
Will Haley survive?
Donald Trump’s only remaining rival in the primaries, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, has been under pressure for weeks from much of the party to withdraw from the race after her successive defeats.
Haley, who has 43 delegates and this Sunday won her first primaries in the District of Columbia, has set Super Tuesday as the goal to reach to demonstrate to donors and voters that she can sustain her candidacy in the face of the suspicion it represents for some who Trump runs again.
But if Trump sweeps across the states called to the polls, it will be very difficult for Haley to justify staying in the race.
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