Economist Gerben Hieminga of ING and energy expert Lucia van Geuns of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague are not positive, especially about the gas reserves for the winter. “Politicians said that the thermostat should be a degree lower in the house next winter, perhaps 3 degrees.”
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Five questions to answer about the gas supply:
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1. What about the stock?
Let’s take a look at the situation first. How bad are things going? The gas reserves in the Netherlands are now 47 percent full. “That’s average for the time of year,” Hieminga says. Doesn’t sound alarming. “We were able to fill it well with gas from Russia, with liquefied gas from the United States and Asia. But the question is how far we can go.”
It will become increasingly difficult to buy gas in the coming period. According to Van Geuns, there is less and less gas on the market, which means that the price is increasing. “The party that pays the most gets the gas. The question is whether the halving to Germany is Putin’s last move, or whether there will be more.”
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2. What is the problem now that Europe is getting less gas?
Less gas goes to Germany and Italy, which means that there is less gas in Europe overall. Van Geuns knows: “Commercial parties are responsible for filling the stocks, but they are finding it increasingly difficult to purchase gas. Long-term contracts are discontinued and gas must be bought on the so-called spot market, where prices can change every hour. The price is going up there.”
The problem is: the so-called Nordstream 1 towards Germany is not the only gas pipeline through which less gas flows. The gas from the Turkstream pipeline on which the south of Europe depends will also be phased out.
But we’re not there yet. The Netherlands recently bought a lot of liquefied gas (LNG) from the US. A good alternative now that Russia is no longer a reliable partner. Hieminga: “But an important terminal for the liquid gas in the US was recently on fire. So less LNG can flow to Europe. That combination of less Russian gas and a tighter LNG market is really worrying.”
Would you like to know more about liquefied gas and the difference with Russian gas? Then watch the video below:
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3. And now what?
“It is getting more expensive and more difficult,” says Van Geuns. And Hieminga: “If we want to fill the stocks and keep our current consumption at the same level, it is an option to have the coal-fired power stations produce more.”
These power stations are allowed to operate at a maximum of 35 percent of their capacity. The cabinet also seems to choose that option† It is not yet clear how much extra the power stations will produce.
What would also help is to use energy more efficiently. For the industry, this means producing less or differently, for people at home, for example, showering less and heating less. The less we consume, the more we can eventually put in stock for the winter.
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4. What if you fail to fill the stock?
“Fingers crossed,” Hieminga says. And then he talks about the temperature in winter. Because if we get a mild winter, we need less gas to keep our feet warm. “If we can skate in the winter, that will be bad news for stocks.”
If it gets cold, there is a good chance that the price will rise even further than it already is. In extreme cases, even deliveries are at risk. It is therefore advisable in any case not to leave the heating on every day. Hieminga: “It seems to be an expensive and cold winter at home.”
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5. And, um, gas from Groningen?
The last resort: gas from Groningen. Politicians seem to be doing everything they can to stop pumping gas from the gas fields from the north. Because we know: more drilling means more earthquakes.
Van Geuns also sees that it is not The Hague’s first choice. “It’s about switching up coal-fired power stations, making industry more efficient or even shutting it down.” But will we soon be able to do without Groningen gas?
Hieminga states that the time has finally arrived to put the subject of Groningen on the table. “In the current energy system, it is becoming increasingly difficult not to look at that. If Germany and Italy run out of gas, they can also call on us to supply extra gas and share the pain.”
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