EPA
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NOS News•today, 18:15
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European countries must reduce gas consumption and replenish gas stocks as soon as possible. In addition, countries must coordinate their emergency plans in case of shortages, writes the International Energy Agency (IEA). a fire letter. “This winter could be a historic test of European solidarity,” said director Fatih Birol. The IEA advises the 29 member countries on developments in the energy market and strategy in the event of shortages.
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According to the IEA, Europe has already made progress, but it is not enough. “It is code red for Europe as Russia is increasingly throttling its gas supply, coupled with other supply problems,” Birol writes. “The coming months are crucial.”
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Here you can see the gas supply from Russia to the European Union from January 2019 until now:
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IEA
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The IEA assumes that the gas reserves of European countries must be filled to 90 percent in order to get through the winter well. According to the calculations, an additional 12 billion cubic meters of gas will have to be stored in order to achieve this.
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The European Union today agreed a letter of intent with Azerbaijan to double gas supplies in the coming years. But that, according to the IEA, is a drop in the ocean: without Russian gas supplies it will be very difficult to achieve the necessary reserves.
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And even if it manages to fill the stocks to 90 percent, according to the IEA, the question is whether it will be possible to make it to winter if Russia stops gas deliveries in October:
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IAE
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Birol therefore calls on European leaders to take measures as soon as possible to prepare for winter. Among other things, he wants companies to be compensated if they use less energy. He also calls for coal, oil and nuclear power plants to run as much as possible. The netherlands have already decided to coal-fired power stations again at full power to run to spare gas-fired power stations.
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Nord Stream 1 critically important
Ultimately, it is crucial how much gas Russia will pump through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany in the near future. At the moment nothing flows through it due to maintenance and the fear is great that Russia seizes this moment to further restrict or even stop the gas supply.
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The signs are there: according to the Reuters news agency, a major customer of Gazprom has been told that gas can no longer be supplied due to ‘force majeure’. With this, the Russian state gas company would try to cover itself against possible compensation demands. It is unclear which customer is involved.
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Emergency credit for Uniper
The German energy giant Uniper, also a customer of Gazprom, has meanwhile had to claim the 2 billion emergency loan from the German government and asked for even more support. Because less gas has flowed through the Nord Stream 1 in recent weeks, the company has to buy it much more expensive elsewhere. That results in millions of losses per day.
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In addition, Uniper currently supplies gas from its own reserves to serve customers. As a result, German gas reserves will become emptier rather than full for next winter.
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The IEA is therefore very concerned, but Gasunie Transport Services in the Netherlands recently expressed a different opinion. The gas network operator expects that this winter no gas shortage will occur if Russia no longer supplies, provided a number of conditions are met. For example, the gas storage must be 80 percent full. Now it is still about 57 percent.
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