This is still preliminary data, which Istat comments, remarking that it was an “unprecedented contraction (-12.4%) for the full unfolding of the economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted”.
The same Institute of Statistics notes that “the fall in GDP is located in an international context where the main economies are experiencing reductions of a similar scale due to the spread of the pandemic”. Only yesterday, for example, the United States they posted a record slump of 32.9% of GDP in the second quarter. Negative data continued today, from other economies comparable to ours. In France, fresh out, the second quarter ended with a 13.8% downturn, following the -5.9% (revised downward) figure in the first period of the year. The repercussion on the economy is even worse Spanish: the Iberian GDP plummeted by 18.5%, always in the second period of the year, while the annual collapse reaches -22.1 per cent.
Even for Italy, there is a meager consolation: “With the result of the second quarter, GDP has registered the lowest value since the first quarter of 1995, the start of the current time series”, recalls Istat. The result of a sharp drop contributed “a decrease in added value in all production sectors, from agriculture, forestry and fishing, to industry, to the complex of services. On the demand side, there is a negative contribution both from the national component (gross of stocks), and of the net foreign component “. The change acquired for 2020 – that is, the GDP that would be recorded at the end of the year if there were no other changes in the remaining quarters – is -14.3%. The hope is that the reopening will bring with it a significant rebound: Minister Gualtieri spoke of one prospect of recovery 15% in the third quarter.
Only yesterday, always Istat had released other heavy data regarding the unemployment with the loss of 600 thousand employed since February and 700 thousand more inactive.
Rep
Italy faces the tsunami of the work on the drifting boat of the navigators
–
The official data from Istat this morning compares with what they put into account analysts. This morning, for example, by Unicredit they anticipated a decline of 18% quarterly, justified in particular “by the contraction of industrial activity and in the service sector, in particular transport, tourism and food-related services”. Indications anticipated by the PMI indices, which however showed signs of rebound for June. Intesa Sanpaolo also signaled the gloomy prospect, but were less pessimistic: “The contraction of GDP in the second quarter should be more than double that seen in the first three months of the year, at -10.8% quarterly from -5.3 Previous%. On an annual basis, GDP would plummet to -15.7% “, said the economists of Ca ‘de Sass in their note at the beginning of the day. “We expect, as in the previous quarter, a negative contribution from both domestic demand and foreign trade, while the further increase in stocks should limit the collapse of economic activity. The spring months represented the minimum point of the cycle, which will see a rebound (but only partial) in the summer quarter “.
Rep
