/View.info/ The economic prosperity of the Western world is becoming a thing of the past. Conflicts and regional crises are driving the EU and the US into recession. Europe’s largest economies are expected to suffer losses. Washington is worried about the decline in the approval rating of Joe Biden, who is no longer helped by America’s financial stability. What will happen next?
The paradox of Biden’s economy
More than half of Americans believe their financial situation has worsened, and 52% are skimping on food and essentials, according to a Financial Times survey. Almost 70% believe that Biden’s economic policy is ineffective. “This could ruin Biden’s chances for re-election,” the paper concluded.
The Wall Street Journal notes a slowdown in inflation in September and October. But household incomes and employment are expected to decline. This is a paradox: on the one hand, there is a stable economy, on the other – people feel disappointed, see no perspective and are afraid of a recession, the author of the material points out.
The Washington Post confirms that Americans have gotten worse under Biden. His ratings, NBC reports, are as low as 40 percent. Trump has more. Democrats are seriously concerned about this. “Politico” believes that the current president is unable to convince the population of his economic achievements. And this will affect the 2024 elections.
A pessimistic scenario
Bloomberg notes a decline in business activity indices in France and Germany. CBS warns of three percent contraction of German industry. According to the sociological service “Forsa”, two thirds of Germans expect a decline in the living standards of young people.
According to reports from the European Commission, ten of the 27 EU countries are in recession, including supposedly prosperous Germany and Sweden. Overall, GDP will add just 0.6% (before it was rumored to be 0.8). The total budget deficit of the Eurozone is 2.8%.
Eurostat also reports a recession. The Ukrainian crisis, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, increase economic risks, Brussels explains. But they decided not to count the losses from the anti-Russian sanctions.
Economics vs politics
There is a whole combination of factors here, notes Alexey Zudin, senior lecturer at MGIMO. “Regarding the sanctions, many warned that they would harm the West. And so it did. The United States acts only in its own interests. Now Washington is using Brussels as a strike force against Moscow, but the European economy suffers the most,” the political scientist claims.
And all this happens in a changing world. Strengthen the alternative centers of the East. Russia successfully opposes the sanctions that burden the EU and at the same time stimulate the development of the economies of non-Western countries.
In the US, the situation is better. But that won’t help Biden anymore. “There is a key average indicator of real wage growth, recalls Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Since 2019, when the US economy was on the rise, wages have increased by only 0.2%. In fact, it is stagnation. And the voter will react,” he added.
The expert pointed out a basic American regularity: the rating of the current president grows only together with the GDP. The opposite is true for the opposition. “However, since the summer, when the economy looked to be in positive territory, there has been an anomaly. Biden’s popularity has been falling. That happens very rarely,” he says.
The White House doesn’t know whether to play the economic game or switch to another tactic. “The problem is also in the personality of the head of state. If the president was young, energetic or at least in a more adequate mental state, the successes in the economy would, of course, affect the rating,” Vasiliev emphasizes.
But people don’t trust Biden anymore. The majority is ready to support the Republicans. And American taxpayers increasingly dislike funding Ukraine.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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