The number of new cases of covid-19 calculated over a week increased sharply this Thursday evening in Lyon and in the Rhône. This does not mean, however, that the virus is circulating much more in the department. This means, on the other hand, that the virus is still circulating a lot …
Easter Monday effect, continuation and end. The incidence rate is yo-yo. Without this determining an epidemic dynamic on the rise … or on the decline. On average, for about ten days, the number of new cases has been fairly stable in the Rhône. The problem is, this is a stable average at a level far too high for now to hope for better days in the short term … Unfortunately.
The circulation of the virus at time t in a territory is measured by the incidence rate. Policymakers have their eyes on it. It is a key indicator. The incidence rate determines the number of positive cases over the last 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants. On a slippery week. It is a very good way to measure the degree of circulation of the virus, at an instant t, on a territory. According to the latest stabilized figures available to us (as of Monday, April 12), this incidence rate is 517 in the Rhône … + 77! In just one day. These data therefore take into account the period from Tuesday April 6 to Monday April 12 (see the graph below)
The effect “Easter Monday” had an effect on the curve
But then why such a rise? Is the virus circulating much more? Really ? No, the incidence rate fell last week, effect … Easter Monday. The incidence rate is measured over a rolling week. However, Monday April 5, it was a holiday, it was Easter Monday. There has been a lot less testing. Like a Sunday. The average over a week has therefore necessarily fallen. There were a lot less tests on Monday April 5 than on Monday March 29, so necessarily a lot less positive cases. A fall in the incidence rate that meant absolutely nothing to the epidemic dynamic. It was purely circumstantial.
This Thursday evening, the incidence rate took into account the period from Tuesday April 6 to Monday April 12. The data for Monday April 12 therefore replaced the data for Monday April 5, a public holiday, where very few tests had been carried out. Logically, the incidence rate is increasing. Widely. This does not mean that the number of new cases is exploding. On the other hand, this means that with an incidence rate of 517, the virus still circulates a lot in the Rhône. Too many to hope for much better days in the short term …
Read also : Coronavirus: slight decrease in the Rhône, increase in the Loire, the point in the 12 departments of the region
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