-I5iGb7Oc-JVqcywFj-version-0d0f41-NsFcyCiz.webp?fit=%2C&ssl=1 "“It is very likely that LR parliamentarians will join Macron in the 2nd round”, predicts Jean-Pierre Raffarin")
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, former Prime Minister, found his “friend” Hubert Falco on Friday in Toulon, as he likes to point out. The president of the Toulon metropolitan area was its delegate minister for the elderly in 2004. “Choosing a leader” is the theme of the public meeting in which they took part.
It is also the title of the book by Jean-Pierre Raffarin. Their leader, they chose him by deciding to support Emmanuel Macron. This does not prevent Jean-Pierre Raffarin from fearing the problems of legitimacy and of majority if the outgoing president were re-elected, and this, at a time when the war in Ukraine requires weighing both on the national and international scene.
Does your rallying to Emmanuel Macron mean that you are definitely leaving the right?
No. I think there is a section of right-wing voters who support Emmanuel Macron. I am not on the move. I didn’t go left. I remain in my political line of the center right, since Emmanuel Macron brings together both the center right and the center left. I am with Édouard Philippe, in a modern, social, and very European right.
What motivates your support for the outgoing president?
I find that in this period of great crisis, he is the candidate who is both the youngest and the most experienced. I know from my own experience, an experienced man is no longer quite young. Our society is changing a lot with the ecological transition, the digital revolution, the evolution of communication, social networks, etc. All of this makes it an asset to be connected to young people. And, in the great current international disorder, it is a strength to be the outgoing president. He is already fully in the exercise of his responsibilities. Today, we cannot expect someone to adapt to the function and the circumstances. You really have to act fast.
Do you think that Valérie Pécresse does not have the stature to manage the global crisis caused by the war in Ukraine?
I think she has the shoulders to be president. She has proven herself. She was a good minister, a good regional president, but to win such a fight, you need qualities and circumstances. Today the circumstances are obviously favorable to Emmanuel Macron.
What are these circumstances?
It is this very difficult five-year term that Emmanuel Macron has had to face with the pandemic. There were difficulties at the beginning of the management of the pandemic but basically the president piloted it in a satisfactory way. Then comes this extremely dangerous international situation. We have both the war in Ukraine, which gives the feeling that the horror is back.
There is this form of anxiety, with the consequences of this war and its diplomatic complexities, which means that the prices of energy and food products will lead to difficulties. There is tension between China and the United States. Already the note will be heavy because of the Covid, because there was a strong indebtedness to face it. But we will also have the note of this war and its consequences on inflation. The future is not easy. Having a young and experienced president is an asset.
After the presidential, the legislative ones. Is cohabitation possible?
Legislation is uncertain. This is the importance that we can have, we in the center right, with the candidates that we will propose to Emmanuel Macron, and which will allow him to widen his majority. It is also very possible that a number of LRs, including parliamentarians, will join Macron in the second round. We will see what their choice will be. The outgoing president will have a majority but it will undoubtedly be somewhat plural. However, there will clearly be in the majority of Emmanuel Macron, a center right and this center right will be heard.
It is also very possible that a number of LRs, including parliamentarians, will join Macron in the second round.
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Your book “Choosing a leader. The secrets of leadership throughout history” evokes among others that of Emmanuel Macron. Does abstention call it into question?
In France, there is no leadership deficit. Basically, Mélenchon is a good leader for his electorate, the same for Marine Le Pen, Valérie Pécresse, Zemmour… Our problem is sharing leadership. With the quinquennium, we give someone a majority and there is no breathing space for five years. I think that there needs to be a reform of parliament so that there is a breathing space with legislative elections within the five-year term: either the mandate of a deputy must be reduced to four years instead of five.
Or, as in the United States, we must introduce mid-term legislative elections. They would be disconnected from the President of the Republic and that would give parliament greater legitimacy, because today what is very worrying is the decline in political legitimacy.
Why this decline?
The policy is not sufficiently attractive, legitimate. Hence the abstentionism. In France, when things are not going well, we abstain. The Americans will vote, as happened for the election of Jo Biden. Electoral participation is still the blood of democracy. The deputies are elected with the mark of the president, from where the question of the division of the leadership between one and the other.
You are the president of the organization Leaders for Peace. How to impose it in Ukraine?
France has a peaceful strategy. It is possible to avoid the extension of this war today by the firmness of the sanctions and diplomacy. We hope that the major international players, the European Union, the United States, but also China and India, will take part in appeasement and try to convince Putin.
China and India abstained at the UN. They have long ties with Russia, but at the same time they want the end of this war. China has made it known that it wants a return to peace but it is very hostile to sanctions. As always she is yin and yang. This country still has many people to rise out of poverty and knows that stable international relations promote development.
One of the most dangerous factors is putting the interests of the world’s second largest economy, China, with the world’s second largest army, Russia.
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Doesn’t China risk wanting to settle accounts with the United States by taking the pretext of Ukraine?
Since 2013, Putin has found an answer to loneliness through a new closeness to China. The United States until the Bush period applied the Kissinger doctrine (1), that is to say, avoid putting China’s interests in the same basket with Russia. But today, one of the most dangerous factors is putting the interests of the world’s second largest economy, China, with the world’s second largest army, Russia. This is something that Kissinger has always condemned and that American presidents have recently underestimated.
North Korea fired an intercontinental missile into the Sea of Japan. Can China curb North Korea’s ambitions as it can curb those of Russia?
North Korea is indeed taking provocative initiatives, but I don’t think China or India are in favor today of destabilizing the world. They too have a lot of problems to solve with the Covid. China is very attentive to the situation in North Korea. She will put all her power to calm the escalation when she finds it dangerous. China has only one cause that could trigger military action and that is Taiwan. And that’s not the question at the moment.
What would be the consequences if Jo Biden decided to retaliate with NATO, to the use of chemical weapons by Russia.
I don’t want to entertain that assumption. We are today in an extremely dangerous situation of escalation. You have to be very careful about what you say. In any process of tension when nuclear power is mentioned, only the President of the Republic should be able to express himself. It is necessary to be very careful because these voltages are extremely coded. There are red lines that should not be crossed. We must let the executive lead, including what we can call the diplomacy of declarations.
What are the other risks of widening the conflict?
This is not a crisis like any other. It can go beyond its regional framework. It has a threatening character, because if there are incidents on the Polish border, it is Europe that is attacked and also NATO.
Will China and Russia suffer from the war in Ukraine?
Probably less than us because they have financial reserves, at least as far as China is concerned, which will enable them to last longer while waiting for the situation to improve. And they have a lot of raw materials that today are needed by the world and on which they will trade.
The sanctions do not seem to make Vladimir Putin back down?
We don’t know yet because they are not yet perceptible to the Russian people. It will take, for them to unfold, a year, 18 months, in any case a long period. The idea is to create difficulties in the daily life of Russians so that voices are raised saying “let’s stop this”. It is to create a feeling of impasse, from which we must get out.
“Will Putin accept that democracy remains in Ukraine?”
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How to get out of this conflict?
The idea of the Finlandization of Ukraine can partially satisfy Putin. The negotiation on the Donbass can also give freedoms to each other. But the big question will still be to say: “Will Putin accept that democracy remains in Ukraine?” Because when we say Finlandization, we say neutrality but democracy. Putin has already had some failures in restoring Europe’s strength. He reinvigorated the Ukrainian resistance. It even somehow brought Americans closer to Europeans. We were a little cold with the Americans because of the Australian submarines.
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