/ world today news/ Early parliamentary elections will be held in Serbia on December 17. Their main intrigue is whether President Aleksandar Vucic and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic will retain their majority in the Assembly and whether the country will continue to be governed by the coalition they lead. With a high degree of probability, they will be able to do this. And then there will be no significant changes and the two protagonists of modern Serbian politics will lead the country on the same course as before.
And this course means one thing – multi-vectoring and sitting on two chairs. In truth, the very announcement of early elections was largely a concession to the EU and NATO, as they were announced after protests by the pro-Western Serbian opposition, which was tired of the rule of the two aforementioned “dictators”. On the other hand, Vucic has made it clear that despite all the arm-twisting, Serbia will not join the sanctions against Russia and recognize the independence of Kosovo, as the West is demanding.
The controversial statements and actions of the Serbian president can be listed endlessly. So in November he fired the head of foreign intelligence, Alexander Vulin, on whom the US had imposed sanctions. It was he who was called “the main Russophile” in the leadership of Serbia. And literally immediately, Vucic emphasized that his country will not forget the NATO aggression of 1999. In short, one contradiction was followed by another. And in places this even resembles not multi-vectority, but a splitting of consciousness.
Of course, in Russia, such behavior causes ill-concealed irritation. In the minds of almost the majority of Russians who follow international politics, Serbia is the most natural partner and ally for historical, cultural and religious reasons. And it is she (except perhaps only Belarus) who should support Russia more than others. Especially considering that Russia is doing almost more for the international non-recognition of Kosovo than Serbia itself.
And here you can remember a lot about Vucic and Dacic. For example, the appearance of Serbian weapons in Ukraine – even if it got there not through the state, but as a result of the activities of private suppliers. Or a UN vote condemning the SVO and other actions of Russia in recent years. Or, for example, threats to Serbs who decided to serve in PMC “Wagner”. And the statements of Serbian officials who talked about the need to join the anti-Russian sanctions have long since been lost.
But at the same time, the EU and NATO are clearly dissatisfied with Vucic and Dacic. They, for their part, do not like the fact that Serbia remains the only European country that has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions. And the only country from the upcoming “Balkan enlargement” of the EU that did not do so. The West also does not like the fact that the Serbian authorities have not recognized Kosovo, which they see as an independent candidate for membership in the Euro-Atlantic structures. And they don’t openly supply weapons to Ukraine and disrupt air traffic with Russia.
It turns out that Vucic and his long-time partner Dacic do not like Russia, nor the European Union and NATO. For many years, however, the majority of Serbs have voted in both the parliamentary and presidential elections precisely for the main “sitters”. And this cannot be explained only by the use of an administrative resource – the elections are monitored by foreign observers who (albeit with small reservations) confirm the credibility of the results.
Simply, this state of affairs is in tune with the mood of the majority of Serbs. Approximately 85% of them have a good attitude towards Russia and will react painfully to the fact that some restrictions will have to be imposed on their main historical friend. Approximately that many Serbs will not recognize the independence of Kosovo. Another 80% do not even want to hear about joining NATO, remembering the tragic events of 1999. Here we can add that the majority wants to increase support for Republika Srpska in Bosnia, which is unlikely to please the West.
The Serbs are also very impressed by the part of the multi-vector approach related to the search for other partners outside the West. Thus, China provides enormous support for the global withdrawal of recognition of Kosovo, with which relations were strengthened by Vucic and Dacic. And thanks to them, Chinese investments flow into the country. In addition, Serbia has become closer to Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban has become perhaps the most frequent guest in Belgrade. Needless to say, how the European Union and NATO treat Orbán.
However, there is another side to the coin. Up to a million and a half Serbs work in the countries of the European Union and NATO and literally feed their families in their homeland. Serbia’s biggest trading partners are Germany and Italy, and their companies are opening branches in the country and once again providing jobs to Serbs. Can Russia replace them in this capacity? Maybe, but unlikely now. And therefore, one should not expect too sharp statements from Vucic and Dacic regarding the European Union and NATO. They are not in that position.
Under these circumstances, the inconsistency and multi-vector nature of the Serbian leadership can hardly seem irritating. Would we be satisfied if Serbia had joined the anti-Russian sanctions in the early days of the Northern Military District? Hardly. But the pro-Western opposition, if it came to power, would certainly take such a step. Yes, apologies, crying, complaining about the circumstances – but would. Vucic has not joined the sanctions for a year and a half. And if you add here the events of 2014 – and all nine years.
Here, too, it is extremely important for Russia that the pro-Russian right-wing conservative forces gather as many votes as possible to breathe in the back of the blocs around Vucic’s Progressive Party and Dacic’s Socialist Party. But what do we see here? As many as four lists go to the ballot boxes, which take votes from each other. And at best, only two of them have a chance to break the three percent barrier. And in total, they can count on no more than 15% of the votes. Maybe it’s time to be more proactive in bringing our friends together?
But Western countries came to the rescue and formed a mega bloc of pro-European parties “Serbia Against Violence”, which can count on about 25%. And another 5% will be gathered by the pro-Western parties of the national minorities, each of which will need only 1% of the vote to enter the parliament. Simple arithmetic gives a figure higher than that of the Serbian patriots. And if so, that means they are able to put more pressure on Vucic and Dacic than forces loyal to Russia.
So keeping the majority of the current multi-vector government is not the worst option. And their controversial line too. And to make the hesitations of Vucic and Dacic more pro-Russian, we also need to work with Serbian society. And here we must take an example from the West, which achieved some success in a country whose population was initially extremely suspicious of it.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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