The Lebanese fear the deterioration of the situation, the expansion of the conflict, and the repercussions of the Israeli war on the Palestinians. They are increasingly fearful of moving from war to war in a tense internal situation in all aspects: political, security, economic, and social. Greater Lebanon has never emerged from the circle of dangers, and it will never emerge from it because it is a country where life does not grow and flourish except through dangers, difficulties, crises, and more. Fortunately or unfortunately for him at the same time, he did not resemble anyone in the East, and suddenly he turned into a source of negative nuisance for everyone.
The scenario of war again may be more disastrous than what happened in the July War (2006), with an economy that has been destroyed/exhausted for four years, and political and social conditions that cannot tolerate new shocks. Lebanon will enter into a military confrontation that will be final for a faltering entity that will make it lose the philosophy of harmony between the components. Lebanese.
Lebanon suffers from geographical vulnerability, as the ratio of its area to its borders is 4 and 15%, which is one of the lowest ratios in the world, and makes its security situation exposed and threatened with the refugee crisis. There is no economic integration approach for it compared to Turkey, which has begun to prefer their survival to their return to Syria. .
13 months and Lebanon has been without a president, a caretaker government, an acting central bank, a parliament that has constitutionally become an elective body, and the political forces are overwhelmed and busy with their daily routines. With the specter of war prevailing, there is no internal will in Lebanon, only Hezbollah, the political and security bloc outside the framework of the state and outside the framework of international relations, which is more related to the visits of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Allahyan and his statements from Lebanon in a way that contradicts what is said about the history of the Lebanese Republic that passed over the years. Its origins are one hundred years old. However, Lebanon is not alone, and the international community is keen, more than its officials, to prevent its downfall, and this is confirmed by the Five-Year Initiative, and the special French interest expressed by the French President’s special envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in his repeated visits to Lebanon, as well as in the actions of the Vatican and most Arab countries. At the forefront is Qatar to support the army, help the United States to demarcate the borders, as well as aid from other countries.
The Lebanese must talk to each other instead of listening to each other, and the parties must give up their gains for the benefit of the state for once.
But although the threats surround the Lebanese, there is neither time nor space to act, and there is also an absence of civil forces. In the security file, with the escalation on the border with occupied Palestine and Israel’s targeting of large groups of Hezbollah fighters and Lebanese villages and towns, there is a need for in-depth thinking about the rules of engagement for the work of the international emergency forces operating in Lebanon and the future of the UNIFIL mission. Any subsequent escalation will lead to complications. Its tasks, and perhaps its withdrawal, only Resolution 1701 removes the ambiguity about the “state.”
The Americans, French, and Spanish are serious in calling for people not to make mistakes, and in calling on the Lebanese to help themselves, contribute to achieving stability, and push for any future political settlement in the region that achieves the aspirations of the Palestinian people, and Lebanon has a great interest in that, from the perspective of adhering to the provisions of the Arab Peace Initiative in Beirut 2002, and from the standpoint of interest in the sustainability of Lebanon and Palestine together, and allows the return file to be placed again on the table. This is a realistic concept in international relations that emerged in the Westphalian concept (1648), and the behavior of states to search for their national interest by possessing force as permanent neutrality, the basis of the original defense. But not with the Israeli invasion and ground invasion, or with the threat to destroy all of Lebanon, and the real danger threatening people who see their lives as disrespectful. In a state of panic and anxiety about new waves of displacement (50 thousand displaced from the south to the interior), and about the loss of materials, food commodities, medicines, and the stock of fuel and wheat resources. Lebanon imports about 80% of its consumer needs, with inflation rising to new record levels, and the burden of Syrian migration continuing since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. Add to that an example of the maximum possible extent of the type of barbaric genocide committed by Israel in its war on Gaza, which violates It contains the lives of people, elderly, children and women, among civilians.
In the case of Lebanon, defense sometimes constitutes a deterrent movement to a greater degree than combat, as the brunt of the war will be more devastating than in Gaza. The various sectors will pay huge costs, of which the international community warns, especially since Lebanon is still suffering from a never-ending flood of crises and setbacks as a result of wrong policies and mismanagement, plagued by corruption, inefficiency, and lethargy in reforms. It is not the product of a liberal system open to the world. The cost this time will be great for the unity of the state and another failure of what remains of fragile political and financial stability, a depletion of the Central Bank’s reserves, a decline in purchasing power and the inability to provide health services and basic needs, especially with the targeting of the already dilapidated infrastructure of water, electricity, hospitals, and the tourism sector. It alone contributes more than six billion dollars to the economy.
What causes optimism is the change within the American Jewish community, and the emergence of a modernist leftist/communist movement in the world in favor of the Palestinian cause.
There are no holidays in Lebanon this year. The potential for any shock puts $6 billion in diaspora remittances at risk. It will be greater than the Gaza scenario in the absence of a large portion of Arab sympathy for Lebanon, due to Hezbollah and its quarrels, and its departure from neutrality in its relations with Iran. It will be a tool that allows the social and cultural components of society and the region to interact and grow, without disturbance. These are viable developments, if the world realizes the seriousness of the escalation in the Middle East and its effects on the decline of stocks, monetary and technology companies, and confusing investor data.
The Americans are talking about some big settlement in the Middle East, and there is no guarantee that it will happen, and they will see how the Israeli war can end. The solution to the Palestinian issue will be absolute on the land of Palestine, and the Al-Aqsa flood will reach a decisive result. What causes optimism is the change within the American Jewish community and the emergence of a modernist leftist/communist movement in the world in favor of the Palestinian cause. Lebanon’s situation is very delicate. America was able to prevent the expansion of the war by agreeing with Iran in some way, and Hezbollah is connected to the latter endlessly. It was content with a policy of ambiguity, and that “it is time for the field”, and Iran does not want to sacrifice its gains. The other real matter is what Prime Minister Najib Mikati said: “We are betrayed because we have no news or knowledge of the decision to make war and peace.” The question is: Where is the sovereign decision? Everything that is happening is an occasion for internal solidarity. The Lebanese act as one team, and privacy does not have the upper hand. The Lebanese must talk to each other instead of listening to others, and the parties must give up their gains for the benefit of the state for once.
2023-12-03 00:12:38
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