Soybean prices closed the week as they started: down. And the outlook for the coming weeks is not encouraging either.
This Friday the September position closed at US$ 344, andThe minimum value since August 27, 2020.Soybean prices fell by 5% this week, while in one year the decline was 30%.
The prices of flour and oil, two of Argentina’s main export products, have also been falling. In Chicago, the value of flour and oil fell 10% and 11%, respectively, compared to the previous month. And compared to the year, flour fell 27% and oil, 35%.
Although soybean prices have been falling in recent weeks, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released updated estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year, with a record harvest and an increase in final stocks.
According to Granar, this Friday “there were light rains that covered Minnesota and eastern Iowa towards the center and east of the soybean/corn belt, supporting the water balance of the soils and accompanying the development of the crops, which continue going through key stages for the formation of future yields, in the run-up to a harvest that is predicted to be a record, but to which no one yet dares to put a ceiling after the estimate of 124.90 million tons made by the USDA on Monday.”
“At the international level, The price will continue to be under pressure in the short term due to the good development of the campaign in the United States. At the local level, demand continues to be strong and this is why the local price has not decreased as much as the value of the oilseed in Chicago,” said grain analyst Catalina Ferrari.
In this scenario of sustained price declines for months, although the sale of grains by Argentine farmers does not show a significant delay compared to previous years, Caution and a slowdown in operations are observedThe Argentine producers are waiting for an improvement in marketing conditions. Argentine producers have already marketed almost 50 percent of the 50.5 million tons harvested in 2023/24, when in 2022/23, by the same date, they had sold 55 percent. They still have to sell 23 million tons, but the merchandise that has no price reaches 30 million tons.
