– It can spin out of control – VG

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Americans believe the gap has worsened since the beginning of 2021 and most expect it to grow in the coming years.

This is demonstrated by a new opinion poll by The Economist e YouGov. It also shows that two in five Americans think a civil war is “quite likely” in the next decade:

US expert Eirik Løkke says he is “extremely worried” about the development.

– The numbers, attitudes and concerns expressed here are pitch black. And of course I hope I’m wrong, but the danger of more political violence and more polarization is great.

– It can spin out of control

Løkke is a consultant to the liberal think tank Civita. You point out that former President Donald Trump has promoted political violence to the highest degree.

– Creating images of the enemy like him also helps to contribute to a political climate in which political violence occurs more easily.

He thinks a civil war, like the one we saw in 1861, is unlikely.

Men:

– But we risk seeing more cases of political violence, as we experienced in 1968 with the murders of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King. And then we can experience that political violence can get out of control.

– Dark numbers

Refers to plans a kidnap the governor of Michigan in 2020the threats FBI Director Christopher Wray received from Donald Trump’s angry supporters after the former president’s home was raided in August and politics Liz Cheney who experienced the same thing after her criticism of Trump.

– Liz Cheney couldn’t hold public meetings at the end, and that’s where we are. The danger that this will degenerate is not small. And that’s also something that is reflected in this survey, says Løkke.

The whole discussion of the civil war in the United States in one form or another is no longer a ridiculous question or an unlikely issue, he points out.

– And you can see it when so many Americans believe it. The problem is that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It can expand out of control.

Republicans most concerned

The Economist and YouGov poll asked Americans about changes in the political climate in the United States, including whether the gap has worsened and what to expect in the future.

Republican voters believe civil war is more likely than Democratic voters.

More Republicans than Democrats believe the political divide has worsened recently and expect the political divide to widen.

Two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe that political divisions in the United States have worsened since the start of 2021, compared with only 8% who say the country has become less divided.

Few see things improve in the coming years: 62% expect greater political division. Three in five Americans (60 percent) expect political violence to rise in the coming years, and only 9 percent expect political violence to decrease.

– Violent political history

Oslo associate professor Nye Høyskole and American policy researcher, Hilde Restad, says there has been an increased focus on the risk of violence and political civil war in recent years.

We don’t know how respondents in the survey rate the civil war, Restad points out:

– But it is conceivable that many people think about political violence. And we’ve seen an increase in political violence in the United States, not least since January 6, 2021.

It is no surprise that Republicans are more concerned about the future.

– There are a lot of conspiracies on the right. When it is conveyed by the media, many on the right are frightened. And of course: the fact that there is no Republican in the White House right now makes them feel even more threatened.

– There has been a civil war in the United States in the past, so you should never say never. But the likelihood of a civil war is called low.

The likelihood of political violence is greater, Restad says:

– The United States has a rather violent political history and we see that far-right violence particularly occurs.

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