A risk that could happen of Russia attack for Ukraine No Belarusit’s not big, he thinks ASV Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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Earlier, the deputy head of the main operational department of the Ukrainian army general staff, Oleksiy Khromov, said that the threat of repeated attacks from the territory of Belarus is increasing.
On the other hand, ISW analysts believe such a development of events in the coming months is unlikely, considering that the Russian military does not have the opportunity to cut Ukraine’s supply routes from the west with the help of an attack of land.
The closest Ukrainian railway line from west to east is 30 kilometers from the border with Belarus, but the Pripet marshes make it very difficult to conduct a maneuvering war across the international border in the Volhynia and Rivne regions.
Ukraine’s road and rail network has enough crossings with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary that a Russian invasion from Belarus could not seriously disrupt Ukraine’s logistic lines without breaking deep into Ukrainian territory, as the Russians did with the battles for Kiev when Russian troops were at their strongest. Currently, these forces have become much weaker.
On Thursday, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby reiterated that Belarus can concentrate labor at the border to engage Ukrainian forces in northern Ukraine, thereby preventing them from deploying in the active combat zone in southern and eastern Ukraine. .
