In response to ISW, there aren’t any grounds to imagine that the Kremlin will respect the brand new settlement. A ceasefire would offer Russia with the chance to rebuild degraded forces, direct manpower towards large-scale enlargement and reform actions somewhat than continued preventing in Ukraine, and allow Russia to additional mobilize its protection industrial base with out the constraints of quick operational necessities in Ukraine.
ISW: Russia will use the ceasefire to additional armament
ISW analysts additionally imagine that Russia may use the ceasefire to arrange forces extra appropriate to conduct one other collection of offensive operations in Ukraine. A ceasefire would additionally present Ukraine with the chance to handle problems with regenerating its power and protection industrial capability, however the Kremlin can not unreasonably anticipate {that a} frozen entrance will make assist for Ukraine much less pressing and related to the West and permit Russia to get forward of Ukraine in getting ready for a resumption of operations. warfare.
In response to ISW, Russian sources particularly emphasised territorial concessions as a part of a supposed ceasefire deliberate by Putin, however not often referred to the broader strategic targets of Putin’s warfare in Ukraine, and the repeated deal with recognizing occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian territory doesn’t point out that Russia would abandon these broader strategic targets. ISW analysts imagine {that a} ceasefire that will return at the moment occupied territory to Russia would concretize the concept Ukraine’s territorial integrity is negotiable, a precedent to which the Kremlin would definitely return to press for additional territorial concessions and fully query the concept of Ukrainian statehood.
American suppose tank: Putin will use the victory over Ukraine to assault NATO
Russia is at the moment getting ready for the opportunity of a traditional warfare with NATO, and the Kremlin will doubtless view something apart from Ukraine’s give up as an existential risk to Russia’s means to wage such a warfare.
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“A Russian victory in Ukraine wouldn’t solely take away the specter of Ukraine as a possible adversary in a doable standard warfare with NATO, however would additionally present Russia with additional sources and folks to interact in a large-scale confrontation with NATO,” the report mentioned.
